BUSINESSMEN BELIEVE OBAMA WILL BRING NEW STIMULUS TO TRADE

Today’s Zaman
Nov 6 2008
Turkey

Barack Obama’s coming takeover of the White House as the 44th
president of the United States has been met with optimistic reactions
from the Turkish business world, which believes the change in the US
administration will bring about a new wave of excitement, invigorating
mutual commercial relations and attempts to solve global economic
problems.

Businessmen stated that trade between the US and Turkey, which has
slowed considerably over the last decade, will likely increase again.

Turkish Exporters Assembly (TÄ°M) President Mehmet BuyukekÅ~_i,
noting that the US share of Turkey’s total exports is hovering at
around 4 percent, said Obama’s presidency might be a chance to turn
trade relations around. Obama’s innovative and pro-change stance is an
important asset inspiring hope for the improvement of the relations,
he said. If the grip of the global financial crisis around the neck
of the US economy loosens a bit as a result of relaxation triggered
by the new pro-market president, exports to the US will also see an
increase, BuyukekÅ~_i predicted.

Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) Chairman Rona Yırcalı
was a bit more cautious, however. He said no big leaps in trade
should be expected in the short term due to the damage the crisis is
inflicting on the US economy. The relations will at least not worsen
during Obama’s presidency, he said, adding that Obama once said,
"We have to repair relations with Turkey."

As of the end of 2007, Turkey’s exports to the US amounted to $4.6
billion, whereas its imports were $6.6 billion. There are 922 American
investors currently active in Turkish business.

American Business Forum in Turkey (ABFT) Chairman Galip Sukaya said
Obama’s first steps will be directed towards removing the sources of
ambiguity in the domestic and international arenas. "Thus, his task
is not easy," he said. "The results of the new president’s economic
policies will start to be seen by February and March. If he can
succeed in making everyone accept his economic policies, the outcome
will be much more profound. But if he fails to persuade people about
his policies, then the wobbles will continue," he stated.

Turkish American Business Council (TAÄ°K) Chairman Haluk Dincer stated
that Obama’s victory should be seen as evidence of the ability of the
US to renew itself and its strong democracy even during the hardest of
times. "The US is really a country of opportunity. It can rise from
its ashes, and this is its biggest strength," he said. The result of
the election was no surprise since the world already favored Obama,
he said.

Dincer further commented that the election results will certainly
contribute to the improvement of the US image in the international
arena, which he thinks has deteriorated greatly owing to the "wrong
policies of the last eight years."

He further stated that Obama’s presidency will inspire confidence in
the markets and this will make overcoming the ongoing crisis easier.

Turkish-American Businessmen’s Association (TABA/AmCham) Chairman
Ugur Terzioglu assessed the results of the election and said, "The
outcome will be very good for Turkey." He said the new president will
be much more comfortable in making changes since he has a Democratic
majority in the Senate and House of Representatives behind him. Obama’s
presidency will also have very positive consequences for the world
"as long as he finds good advisors in economic and military affairs,"
he added. He nonetheless noted that it was still "too early to say
more" about the long-term effects the Obama administration would have
on the business environment.

Evaluating the election results in terms of the financial crisis,
Terzioglu noted that when an economic crisis is followed by an
election, the electorate always replaces the government responsible.

Aldo Kaslowski, the president of the Turkish Industrialists and
Businessmen’s Association (TUSÄ°AD) International, said Obama was the
"right and proper name" to manage the crisis since he has the power
and determination to cope with the problems. Kaslowski claimed that
the election of a US president matters not only to the people of the
US, but also to almost everyone in the world.

Obama’s victory will, under all circumstances, cause advancement in
the repair of economic troubles, Kaslowski said. "This crisis doesn’t
have a visible end, and it is quite difficult to estimate how much
longer it will last because it has just started to affect non-financial
sectors. Until now, only financial institutions have been subject to
bailout and rescue packages, but from now on, industrial sectors and
manufacturers will also be in need of support."

On the future course of Turkish-US relations, he said it is still
too early to make a definite assessment. "We know that everything
expressed during election campaigns might change later. I believe his
advisor will assist him in international relations because he is very
experienced," he said, adding that there will be no change in the US
attitude towards Turkey in major policy areas like the Cyprus issue
and the Armenian genocide claims.

Some observers, on the other hand, expressed possible concerns. Jeffrey
Komprecos, the external affairs director at Merck Sharp and Dohme,
feared that a more "inwardly focused" administration might pose
possible concerns to Turkish-US bilateral relations. A focus on
domestic issues in combination with strengthening union rights
"can affect the commercial environment" with Turkey — especially if
coupled with touchy diplomatic subjects such as the alleged Armenian
genocide claims that Obama had pledged he would support if elected
to the White House.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will pay a visit to the
US on Nov. 13-17, his office said on Wednesday. Turkey’s prime minister
will participate in the Summit on Financial Markets and the World
Economy, which will take place in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 14-15,
his office said. The summit will bring together the leaders of the
Group of 20 countries to discuss the current financial crisis, its
causes and efforts to resolve it.

Stocks ebb as economic reality clouds Obama win

International markets and investors, Ä°stanbul included, are unlikely
to be sharing the same enthusiasm that many are experiencing today
around the world after Obama’s election.

The Ä°stanbul Stock Exchange (Ä°MKB) shed 5.07 percent yesterday
to close at 27,885.92 as speculation grew that Turkey would not be
signing a new standby agreement with the IMF. The value of the lira
also remained relatively flat, with $1 buying YTL 1.507. European
stocks retreated, ending six straight days of global equity gains and
offsetting Asia’s early rally, as investors refocused on the economic
problems facing Obama.

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Obama urged to shape new economic order Political leaders urged
US President-elect Barack Obama on Wednesday to help forge a new
economic order to lead the world out of its worst financial crisis
since the 1930s.

Excitement about the election of Democrat Obama as the first black US
President was tempered by an awareness of the challenges he faces as
the world’s biggest economy labours in recession. "We need to change
the current crisis into a new opportunity. We need a new deal for a
new world," said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. "I
sincerely hope that with the leadership of President Obama, the United
States of America will join forces with Europe to drive this new deal,"
he added.

Initial market reaction was lukewarm, with the dollar firming but
shares on Wall Street expected to fall as attention focused on a sharp
world economic downturn. "The market is maybe reflecting the hard work
ahead and difficult economic circumstances new president Barack Obama
has inherited," said Keith Bowman, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Obama does not take office until January, leaving outgoing President
George W. Bush to host a summit of world leaders in Washington on
Nov. 15 to discuss the global financial crisis which has its roots
in the collapse of the US housing market.

That summit will tackle new ways to regulate the world’s financial
sector as the world heads into recession. Authorities are trying to
soften the impact of the downturn with support for banks, cheaper
lending and stimulus measures, which have already amounted to around
$4 trillion. Obama will move quickly to appoint his top team. The next
Treasury secretary, who could be named within days, will inherit one
of the hottest seats in Washington, faced both with piloting a $700
billion bailout package and the regulatory reform needed to prevent
a repeat of the crisis.

The short list likely includes former Treasury secretary Lawrence
Summers, ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker and Timothy Geithner,
head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Obama has advocated a second government stimulus package worth $175
billion that would include money for investments in infrastructure
as well as another round of tax rebates.

The US Treasury is expected to announce on Wednesday the return of the
three-year note when it sets out plans for borrowing which could total
$2.1 trillion in the current fiscal year, to fund its massive bailout
programme. The financial crisis, which stemmed from a US housing
market collapse, has redrawn the banking landscape and authorities
are pushing for changes to its corporate culture. London Reuters

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