IRAQ TO BE MORE DECISIVE IN TURKEY-U.S. RELATIONS UNDER BARACK OBAMA

Hurriyet
Nov 5 2008
Turkey

U.S. president-elect Barack Obama’s Iraq policy is likely to be the
main issue that would shape the future of Turkish-American relations
despite concerns over a problematic period over his stance on the
Armenian genocide claims.

Obama has pledged that he would accept as "genocide", the 1915
incidents in which 300,000 Armenians along with at least as many Turks
died in civil strife that emerged when Russian-backed Armenians took
up arms for independence in eastern Anatolia.

Armenia, with the backing of the diaspora, claims up to 1.5 million
of their kin were slaughtered in orchestrated killings in 1915.

While Armenians extended their support to Obama against his rival,
Republican contender John McCain, Ankara is concerned that a move to
identify the 1915 incidents as "genocide" would create a crisis in
the bilateral relations.

However, such a scenario is increasingly unlikely. Obama would not
be the first president to use the term of "genocide" to describe the
1915 incidents, but not go as far as to officially accept it.

CONTINUATION OF POLICIES

There are several reasons for that:

First of all if we look at the recent remarks or statements of
U.S. government officials, we see that they have been stressing the
principle of continuity in Washington after the presidential elections.

They also underline the need for Turkey’s support to American policies
given the fact that Turkey had secured a seat on the United Nations
Security Council.

Secondly, the ties between Turkey and Armenia are improving after
Turkish President Abdullah Gul paid a visit to Yerevan, a move welcomed
by the international community.

Any decision of the U.S. to accept the Armenian genocide claims would
no doubt harm this warmer atmosphere and the Washington administration
would hesitate to do that no matter who lives in the White House.

Thirdly, and possibly most importantly, Obama pledged to bring American
troops in Iraq home. And the U.S. needs a Turkey with good relations
to prevent any chaos that might spark in Iraq and in the wider region.

IRAQ POLICY OF OBAMA

The main issue therefore shaping the relations between the two allies
would be Iraq, not the Armenian claims as many have speculated.

Obama has pledged to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq, outlining a
three-step plan for his Iraq policy.

The removal of troops will be responsible and phased and he will
press Iraq’s leaders to take responsibility for their future and
to substantially spend oil revenues on their own reconstruction. He
will launch an aggressive diplomatic effort to reach a comprehensive
compact on the stability of Iraq and the region, according to his
campaign website.

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq has the risk of increased
instability unless managed correctly.

Such move could also hamper Turkey’s fight to crackdown on the terror
organization, PKK, which is based in northern Iraq.

As a result, for the new president it would not be easy to change
U.S. policy on a highly sensitive issue like the Armenian claims, but
a change in its Iraq policy would have wider repercussions in Turkey.