OBAMA ERA TO BRING MORE US PRESSURE ON REFORMS, ARMENIA

Today’s Zaman
Nov 6 2008
Turkey

Democrat Barack Obama’s landslide victory in the US election is
a dream come true for most ordinary Turks, but it could mean more
pressure on the government to speed up reforms for a better state of
human rights in the country.

It is also likely to spell a definite end for the long-held
Turkish policy of dealing with Armenian claims of genocide through
counter-measures to suppress pro-genocide resolutions in Congress.

Turkey has had ups and downs in its strategic ties with the United
States during the George W. Bush administration, differing on Iraq,
the best way to handle a dispute over Iran’s nuclear program and
Middle East peace efforts. But during the two terms of the outgoing
president, Turkey has heard little criticism over its human rights
record, contrary to the practice during the era of Bush’s Democratic
predecessor, Bill Clinton. Pundits say Obama is likely to revive the
Democratic tradition of applying more pressure to do more to improve
human rights, a key demand of the European Union in the membership
process.

On Wednesday, the EU urged Ankara to do more in the area of political
reforms, in a regular progress report assessing Turkish efforts to
achieve membership. When Obama officially takes over the US presidency
from Bush on Jan. 20, Washington may join Brussels in pressuring
Turkey for a better human rights record.

Obama and his vice president-elect, Joe Biden, have made it clear
more than once that they support Armenian claims of genocide at the
hands of the Ottoman Empire during the years of World War I. Obama
also pledged during his election campaign that as president he would
recognize the claims.

Turkey has managed for decades to block Armenian efforts to win US
recognition for genocide claims, but with the White House readying
for an Obama era, it is high time for Ankara to promote a more
comprehensive policy that goes far beyond addressing immediate
challenges at the US Congress, experts say. Many fear that Obama’s
use of the G-word in his next message for April 24 — a traditional
occasion when US presidents commemorate Armenians who perished in
Anatolia in the last century — could shatter Turkey-US ties and
that following up on a recent drive for dialogue with Armenia might
be the only way to save relations from a catastrophe.

"There is nothing to be afraid of; Turkey should trust itself. What
needs to be done is further improving the relations with Yerevan and
marginalizing the Armenian diaspora in the United States," said Omer
TaÅ~_pınar, an expert on Turkey with the Washington-based Brookings
Institution and a Today’s Zaman columnist. "By opening borders with
Armenia and taking other appropriate steps, Turkey will have the
trump card in its hands."

President Abdullah Gul paid a landmark visit to Armenia in September,
and officials of the two countries, which currently have no formal
ties, have been having talks since then on normalizing relations.

Marc Grossman, a former US ambassador to Turkey, advised the Turkish
government to keep improving ties with Armenia during a teleconference
at the US Embassy in Ankara early on Wednesday. Dialogue and open
borders with Armenia will give Turkey an advantage in discussing the
issue with the Obama administration, he said.

Iraq: main challenge?

In addition to concerns over the Armenian "genocide," Turkey also fears
a swift US withdrawal from Iraq, as suggested by Obama, would revive
its old nightmare of a divided Iraq and an independent Kurdistan on
its southern border. Obama has pledged a timetable for the withdrawal
of US forces and suggested this could be completed within 16 months.

Turkey had perhaps the biggest crisis in its decades-old alliance with
the United States over Iraq in 2003, when it turned down a US request
to use Turkish soil to open a front on Iraq. Since then, relations have
recovered at the end of a slow and painful process, and the destruction
of the delicate balances established over the past few years has the
potential to bring back the time of crisis. Though he never repeated
it during the election campaign, Biden rattled Turkish policy makers by
making a controversial proposal to divide Iraq into three in the past.

If the issues of troop withdrawal and Iraqi integrity are worked out,
Ankara and Washington are widely expected to enjoy being on the same
page on rest of the other Iraq issues, most notably the presence of
the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq. Obama and
Biden have blamed "the Bush administration’s misguided and mismanaged
intervention in Iraq" for the revival of the terrorist threat posed
to Turkey by the separatist PKK.

Obama and Biden are also most likely to follow the Bush
administration’s policy of supporting Turkish-Iraqi Kurdish dialogue on
eliminating the PKK threat, a recent novelty in Turkish foreign policy.

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