TRILATERAL DECLARATION FAR NOT A GUARANTEE
Naira Khachatryan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
05 Nov 08
Armenia

Director of "Akunk" political-analytical center Ruben Hakobyan
represents his standpoints regarding the settlement of Karabakh issue
in "Pastark" club, yesterday.

He said the Moscow trilateral declaration is the logical
continuation of the regional developments, and the stage following
the Georgian-Ossetian developments displayed that Russia has clear
interests in the region and will never refuse these interests. "There
is no accusatory word or approach here, to set off against Russia’s
behavior, I simply want to underscore that they do their best to
protect their interests. Which is why Russia initiated the Moscow
meeting and, in essence, by heralding a new stage in the settlement
of NKR conflict, they are trying to consolidate, their positions in
the region, bit by bit."

According to the speaker Russia intends to settle Karabakh issue by
establishing one common security zone: "Russia is planning to totally
include our region in its security zone and to reiterate that only
this way can we ensure stability in the region. Of course all the
other superpowers, in the person of the West, the USA, and NATO are
also trying to have a role in the region, but Russia seems not to
cede its positions to any of them."

R. Hakobyan is sure, that after signing the declaration the diplomatic
work becomes more important in the negotiation process. From this point
of view, by commenting on the Madrid principles, which is the bases
of the settlement he said: "To be short in our formulations, these
principals can be described as an attempt to combine and synthesize
two completely contradicting principles, which, on the other hand,
comply with the international norms. The conversation is about the
principle of the territorial integrity and the nations’ right to
sovereignty. This, in essence, can be considered an experiment. But
unfortunately they employ this experiment in our region and each of
them tries to benefit from this game.

The forthcoming developments depend on the diplomacy of the states. One
thing is clear, by entering this very important process Russia is
trying to keep its control in the region."

As regards the interests of the states Ruben Hakobyan said we
shouldn’t ignore the oil factor. "Russia is facing a problem of
becoming a transit way for Azerbaijan to transport its power-stuff:
oil, gas, to the West. It is a serious problem, in both political
and economic terms."

As regards the prospects the speaker said the announcements made
by the Minsk Group American Co-Chairman Mathew Braise is rather
paradoxical. On the one hand he welcomed the declaration saying that
the document attaches great importance to the peaceful settlement
of the conflict and on the other hand he complained that they didn’t
give chance to the Co-Chairmen to be present in the meeting. "Not to
go deep into the details, judging from the before mentioned we can
state that the signing of the declaration was only and only Russia’s
initiative. The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmanship didn’t have any
connection with the preparation of this declaration.

This is not a commentary it is a recorded fact."

Later, by commenting on this fact he said: "In this case among the
Co-Chairmen Russia becomes more presiding. And, really, Russia tried
to say that it can be initiatory and have influence on the settlement
of the conflict."

Ruben Hakobyan says at the new stage of the negotiations Nagorno
Karabakhs participation becomes indispensable: "In my view the most
important issue, which our authorities must solve at the moment is to
make Karabakh a negotiation party. It has ripened from both political
and moral point of view. In this direction our diplomacy must work
hard, because Karabakh’s participation is very important."

As regards the prospect of the peaceful settlement of the conflict,
the Director of "Akunk" is confident that the fact of the existence of
this declaration doesn’t ensure opportunities for military solutions:
"It is not enshrined in the declaration that Azerbaijan can’t suddenly
attack Armenia. This is our desire and we would like it to become
reality. We must remember that there are lots of cases in the world
history when the war starts immediately after signing a treaty and
declaration is far not an imperative demand or a treaty."