HISTORY IS MADE!
By Mustafa Gokcek
Today’s Zaman
Nov 7 2008
Turkey
The most significant consequence of the Barack Obama victory is
breaking down the psychological barriers. The racial perceptions
and paradigms of both whites and blacks in the US are fundamentally
changed.
Every election is unique. But this election was bound to be
historic. The next president would be the first African-American,
the first woman or the oldest one ever. The American people chose
the most unlikely of the three options.
It was a tough call for Barack Obama to run for the presidency. It was
a tough race. It was a tough decision for the voters to make. It is
crucial to understand the psychological barrier most people had about
an African-American candidate. After all it has been only 43 years
since the Voting Rights Act made it possible for all African-Americans
to vote. After all it was not too long ago when there were "colored"
water fountains and "colored" restrooms in the US. Maybe it was. Maybe
it has been long enough for a new generation to be raised to overcome
the prejudices and biases of olden times. It was Obama who was able
to energize that new generation and convince the older one that an
African-American too could do it. But how exactly did he do it?
A year ago an older friend of mine, a southerner, a nuclear power
supporter and originally a Republican, had spoken quite suspiciously of
Obama and his ability to win the candidacy. A few days ago he was very
determined to vote for Obama and argued that people had just gotten
used to the idea of an Obama presidency over the last year. "Who was
more ‘adult’ during the campaign debates?" my friend asked. It was
certainly not John McCain; calling Obama "that one," rolling his eyes,
wandering around on the stage, licking his lips more than 70 times in
one debate and avoiding eye contact with his opponent did not help
him. All these added to his constantly shifting and contradictory
messages and strategies: one day attacking Obama personally and
harshly and the next correcting his audience when they did the same,
praising the economy one day and blaming corporations on the next,
claiming success in Iraq and then blaming the Bush administration for
their wrongdoings in the war, attacking Obama for his inexperience,
then choosing the unexpected and inexperienced Sarah Palin as a running
mate. On the other hand throughout the campaign, Obama stuck to his
message, was consistent in his arguments and presented himself in a
presidential manner.
Obama’s winning strategies
Obama ran a highly disciplined, efficient and well-organized
campaign. From very early on, the campaign team was very carefully
assembled. David Axelrod, the chief strategist of the Obama campaign,
was an experienced political consultant who had brought victory to
several other politicians before. David Plouffe, the campaign manager,
was quite successful in turning the campaign into a grassroots
movement especially among youth. Obama’s choice for vice president,
Joe Biden, brought strength to the campaign and certainly played a
role in the victory.
One of the early goals Obama set for his campaign was for it to
be a grassroots organization. He accomplished this goal by using
new technologies very efficiently. All the wonders of Internet and
cell phone technology, which are especially popular among youth —
such as YouTube and text messaging — began to serve the Obama
campaign. Mybarackobama.com turned into a politicized facebook,
where volunteers initiated tens of thousands of campaign events,
made calls to registered voters and gathered millions of dollars, all
organized online. His young supporters could put together real local
gatherings through online groups or download a list of registered
voters in a certain battleground state to their iPhones and make
direct calls in support of Obama. They were also highly effective in
getting first-time voters out. Voter registration was a central part
of his campaign; the black vote and the youth vote (66 percent voted
for Obama) were especially decisive in bringing victory.
Obama established a special connection with his online supporters; he
announced his running mate first through an email to his supporters
before anyone else knew who it would be, financial reports about
fundraising were first declared through email to Obama fans, challenges
along the campaign path were shared with online supporters and after
winning the election, he sent a victory email before going on stage
to make his victory talk. In that message he thanked his online fans
for their support, adding, "I’ll be in touch soon about what comes
next," implying that he will turn his election campaign momentum into
a civil rights and community action movement.
What were the outside factors that helped Obama? The most important one
certainly is the economic crisis. In the beginning most people thought
his strength was in his opposition to the war in Iraq, therefore his
message of pulling out of Iraq was much stronger. As the economic
downturn became more obvious and started hitting the pockets of people
on the street, the economic crisis became the primary determinant
in the race. On Election Day 80 percent of voters said the economy
was their top concern, and only 10 percent mentioned Iraq. For many
analysts the turning point in the campaign was when McCain declared
that the fundamentals of the economy were strong. Obama consistently
and convincingly used this message to emphasize how out of touch McCain
was. It also did not help McCain to label Obama as a socialist, and
then support the $700 billion bailout — the most socialist government
intervention into the US economy. The US has been run for too long
under the failed Republican economic policies of Bush, who has an
all-time-low popular support of 27 percent. Voters did not see a
major difference between Bush and McCain on the most fundamental issue.
An Obama presidency
The most significant consequence of the Obama victory is breaking
down the psychological barriers. The racial perceptions and paradigms
of both whites and blacks in the US are fundamentally changed. On
the one hand, white voters will be much more open to considering an
African-American candidate for any position in the future. On the
other, African-Americans will not be able to blame the dominant white
society for their failures. The white voters’ support played an immense
role in bringing the presidency to Obama. The black population will
now look at Obama as an exemplary success story and not a distant one.
So what is next? Can we expect Obama to save the world? Certainly
not. But at least we can expect things to go into a new direction,
hopefully a better one. He has tough calls to make and testing
challenges to face. The economy and Iraq are on top of the list,
once he establishes his team in the government. In terms of his
policies, I expect a combination of Roosevelt’s New Deal approach in
fixing the spoiled financial institutions, Johnson’s Great Society
in fighting poverty, Kennedy’s New Frontier in emphasizing community
action and addressing civil rights issues, and again Kennedy’s World
Peace approach targeting peace and diplomacy in dealing with the
international challenges. Obama will not pull out of Iraq right now,
but he will set it as a goal and will establish a shorter timeline
to accomplish that. Obama will certainly conduct a more respectful,
and thus respected, international diplomacy. With the support of
a Democrat-controlled Senate he will have a much stronger hand in
implementing bitter economic regulations on the spoiled financial
institutions. However it would take at least two years, before the
economic indicators turn positive and the economic burden of war
is relieved.
Obama and Turkey
The Obama victory has various implications for Turkey. A reduced
American presence will increase Turkey’s role in Iraq. Unless Iraq
goes into a civil war which involves Kurds as well, the consequence
should be positive for Turkey. A stronger cooperation with the Iraqi
government and more specifically with the Kurdish leaders could
bring an end to outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorism
and increase Turkey’s economic and political role in Iraq.
Obama’s emphasis on diplomacy will mean a larger and more respectful
role for Turkey in regional issues. Turkey’s improved relations with
all the parties in the various conflicts of the Middle East will
be a crucial asset the US could use. Besides, Turkey’s role within
the UN Security Council will open up new avenues of cooperation
between Turkey and the US on international matters, such as global
warming and maintaining peace in conflict zones in Africa. Not only
in matters of conflict resolution, but also in initiating democratic
institutions and processes in the Middle East and in Central Asia,
Turkey could take a leading role and look for more constructive and
peaceful support from the US.
To avoid a potential point of tension, Turkey has to start lobbying on
the Armenian issue to express the Turkish view even more strongly. New
Turkish initiatives, such as opening up borders with Armenia or
stronger pressure for a joint commission of historians, could be
influential in preventing the likely success of a renewed Armenian
resolution in the US Congress.
It is hard to ignore the similarities between Obama’s victory and
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory in 2002. Both
come from humble backgrounds. Both have won unexpected victories
through successful grassroots campaign organizations. Both took
the job during times of economic crisis. Both express diplomacy as a
central principle in their foreign policy. Both support welfare for the
lower classes. Both are highly skilled in establishing a good team and
leading that team to success. Both have expressed their goal to unite
the country by going beyond party lines. In his victory speech Obama
appealed to the Republicans as well: "I may not have won your vote
tonight, but I hear your voices. I need your help. And I will be your
president, too." Erdogan’s victory speech exactly six years before
Obama’s, on Nov. 4, 2002, reflected the same inclusive spirit. How
Obama will carry this approach into practice is an open question.
Obama has accomplished a great victory in the US election, spreading
waves of hope not only in the US but all around the globe. Even if
he had lost, he would have made history. Now that he has won, he has
more history to make.