AZERI THINK-TANK GROUP PREDICTS NO CHANGES UNDER CURRENT PRESIDENT

Turan News Agency
Oct 28 2008
Azerbaijan

‘Calm start’ of the second term in office

A formal and imperceptible presidential election that ended with
similar formal and indiscernible inauguration ritual has been left
behind. The re-elected president has started his second term in office
in a similar formal and imperceptible vein.

Actually, Azerbaijani society has had time neither notice the
election nor the absence of the real opposition in this process,
nor the start of the second term in office of Ilham Aliyev. In its
turn, the international community preferred to assess this as the
"election without a choice" and as another step towards democracy.

In his post-inauguration speech, the president went further, stating
that democratic society has been established in Azerbaijan. But as
democracy and modernization are endless processes, then consequently,
resources and opportunities of further democratic progress have not
fully exhausted.

There will be similar elections and consequently, new steps towards
democracy. The fatal, calm and indifferent climate of the election also
conditioned fatal, calm and indifferent nature of the post-election
situation from which actually no serious innovations are expected.

On the one hand, it seems the authorities did not knowingly lay
an election bid into the scenario of the current election for a
fundamentally qualitative innovation. On the other hand, formal,
indiscernible and "pointless" nature of the electoral process did
not absolutely tune society into expectations for any significant
and positive innovations in the post-election period.

If we set aside general showy and regular rhetoric, then actually,
the president in no way specifically outlined key priorities of his
next term in office and still is not in a hurry to make his real
plans and steps public with regard his readiness to this or another
significant changes.

In all likelihood that the start of his second term in office will pass
in a quiet and formal vein and will not be marked by any fundamental
changes and innovations. Nevertheless, calm, smooth and problem-free
entry of the authorities into a new cycle of the presidential term
will hardly secure calm, smooth and problem-free move in the course
for a quite long time.

Irrespective of the fact whether or not the authorities are ready
for this or another innovations, regardless of the fact whether or
not it wants to form its opinion on this or another issue, there
are problems and priorities which are demanded by the dynamics of
development of situation across the world, in the region and in the
country. In this plan, neither calm election, nor calm promotion of
the post-election processes is able to deactualize real problems and
prevent intrigue of matured changes.

In a row of key priorities and problems, on which the president has
to make up his mind in the near future, many political experts mention:

– identifying real opportunities and limits for compromise for the
resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict (the Karabakh problem)
in the light of fresh initiatives and complex (post-Georgian) situation
in the region;

– on maintaining definite balancing elements in the foreign policy,
ensuring more clear and precise geopolitical orientation of the
country, especially in the issue of integration into Euro-Atlantic
structures;

– on implementing a complex of legal, political and economic reforms
for the purpose of minimizing risks for the country from the global
financial crisis;

– by virtue of depleting resources for upgrading the country in
conditions of strict authoritarian, corrupt and neo-Soviet political
system, the necessity for personnel, political, legal and "conceptual"
rethinking (renovation) of style of governing the state.

One way or another, however, the head of the state has to determine
on all these issues of principal importance. And, the earlier, the
better for the country and for the authorities.