LET’S WAIT TILL APRIL 24
Gevorg Haroutyunyan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
07 Nov 08
Armenia

Whether Obama will keep his promise

Interview with Kiro Manoyan, person-in-charge for the ‘Hay Dat’
and Political Affairs Office of the ARFD Bureau

"Mr. Manoyan, what changes will occur in the Armenian-American
relations before and after January 20, when Barrack Hussein Obama
assumes the post of the US President?"

"Congratulating the President-elect, George Bush also reminds that
before the 20th of January, he will be the President of the United
States.

This means that the incumbent President of the United States is not
going to introduce any changes in the American foreign policy just
because Democrat Obama was elected the US President.

And after January 20, US President Barrack Obama will be facing
a number of great and complex problems. In particular, an economic
crisis which has created a lot of problems both for the United States
and the global economy, two wars -in Iraq and Afghanistan, various
social security problems inside the country etc.

This picture makes it obvious that the issues concerning the Armenians
are not going to be included in the list of Mr. Obama’s priority
tasks. At the same time, it’s a fact that Obama maintained his stance
after the Turkish President sent two delegates to the Advisors of
presidential contenders Obama and McCain with the purpose of warning
the latter not to make any attempt to recognize the Armenian Genocide
after being elected a President. Obama didn’t change his stance
after receiving this warning, and this leads to the belief that the
President-elect has a serious attitude to his pre-election promise.

Another evidence of this is the concern observed in the leading circles
of Turkey. The thing is that, violating all the norms of ethics
of international relations, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoghan hinted
in his congratulatory address to Mr. Obama that he hoped the newly
elected President would not keep the promise given to the US citizens.

Fortunately, the Armenian President’s congratulatory message also
contains hints on Mr. Obama’s pre-election promise. Using a more
diplomatic language, Serge Sargsyan introduced the expectations of
Armenia, as well as underlined the US President-elect’s stance on
the issues arousing interest among the Armenians.

As to what developments will occur in the Armenian-American relations
largely depends on Obama. However, there are other factors as
well. The majority of the members of Congress are Democrats, so if
Obama recognizes the Armenian Genocide, the Congress will not have
to adopt a resolution.

Before this, the Resolution of the Congress was a requirement that
would help appeal to President Bush with a demand to characterize
the 1915 events as Genocide while delivering his April 24 address
and making further steps in the sphere of foreign policy.

Such process of the recognition of the Armenian Genocide will suffer
the consequences of a negative impact should any of the parties make
negligent steps in the process of the formation of the Armenian-Turkish
relations. In particular, that may happen in case of setting up a
body dealing with the discussion of the historical facts. The thing is
that from the moment of its inception till the end of its activities,
Turkey will do its best to delay the activities of such body, and in
the meantime, speculate the issue of its existence.

If the issue of the Genocide becomes a subject of discussion with
the participation of the Armenian side, Obama will not be able to
keep his promise. If no such body is set up, Turkey may squander
threats. However, it was long ago that Obama warned Turkey to be ready
and not to be taken aback when the US President recognized the fact
of the Armenian Genocide."