THE 11TH PROGRESS REPORT

Turkish Daily News
November 8, 2008 Saturday

I recall how dull the progress reports of 2000 and 2001 were, due
to the then coalition government’s failure to deliver on European
Union harmonization. The reports had no substance and signalled
retreat rather than progress. This year’s report reminds me of those
reports. It is a fact that the government did nothing noteworthy in
EU works in the last four years. Rather it found so many different
excuses to not go for it. The report contains rambling suggestions
like "hurry-up in reforms" and points at deficiencies that have been
repeated time and again throughout the years. It seems that the
report this time has been kept short in order not to keep talking
about negatives.

Loss of interest at max

On the EU side, a tactic of exaggeration is used, like the past
four progress reports. Even the most ordinary work is included in
the report. The best example is Turkey’s successes in world-famous
foreign policy stories that happen only in dreams, with the exception
of President Abdullah Gul’s visit to the Armenian capital, Yerevan. The
report praises the positive diplomacy Turkey follows, as though it
was a major acquis chapter. Another point of appraisal becomes the
"working market economy." Although nothing much has changed in recent
years Turkey has been declared a market economy. Frankly there must
have been nothing better to state.

As a matter of fact, both parties suffer from a lack of interest in
Turkey’s EU prospects. The Turkish government has been making excuses
about the EU bid since 2005. When I wrote this before nobody seemed
to care, yet now this unwillingness is being universally admitted. The
EU side shows no sensitivity though. Even the most passionate friends
of Turkey in the bloc cannot offer anything solid but the same old
preaching and incentives. No one is interested to prop up the process.

The EU is preoccupied by the ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty,
the Georgian crisis that broke out in early August and now, the global
financial crisis. Turkey’s accession to the union is not a priority
compared to these problems. In this state of mind, we will welcome
2009. There are two EU term presidencies in the upcoming term. First,
well-intentioned yet inexperienced Czech Republic and then Sweden will
take the helm. If the impact of the global financial crisis and the
ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland continue to be
the problems, already-weakened Turkey-EU relations may take a turn for
the worse in late 2009. There are no chapters remaining to be opened,
except "Information Society and Media" and "Free Movement of Capital".

In this foggy picture, the only ray of hope is that settlement talks
in Cyprus may lead to possible overtures for a permanent solution in
2009. The negotiation of eight chapters, which have been suspended
due to the Cyprus deadlock, may be resumed.

It is difficult to say that government and decision-makers in general,
have understood the value of the EU membership process in this global
financial crisis environment. For instance Rifat Hisarciklioglu,
chairman of the Turkish Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges,
or TOBB, while talking about the financial crisis did not include the
EU among the anchors Turkey needs to save itself. As we move into a
period where everyone is trying to save themselves and as the local
elections in March 2009 are approaching, it is very doubtful that
the EU accession bid will be remembered.

First the global economic crisis, then the Kurdish issue and Ergenekon
case, now the debates over the regime, fomented by the Constitutional
Court’s announcement of the decision in the closure case against the
governing Justice and Development Party. EU-related works may not be,
or will never be, on the agenda, at least for a long time. And this
is hardly an exaggeration..