SHORT REST BEFORE STORM
Vardan Grigoryan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
13 Nov 08
Armenia

The successive decline observed in the Karabakh peace talks and
the Armenian-Turkish relations makes the task of predicting and
confronting the new challenges an urgent issue for the political
forces. So, it’s not time for "specifying political attitudes" now.

Judging by the shallow statements of the NA Deputies and the tactics
of playing an "internal political hide-and-seek" with regard to the
Karabakh issue (a practice adopted by the Armenian National Congress,
the principal pro-opposition force), the solution of such problem will
again be the sole monopoly of the authorities and expert circles in
the near future.

Whereas, it’s obvious that this December we will be facing new
serious developments with regard to both the Karabakh issue and the
Armenian-Turkish relations.

The United States influential mediation aimed at the implementation of
the Madrid Principles will soon be included in the agenda. Besides,
the top figures of Russia and Turkey will meet in Moscow, and during
their meeting they will try to overcome what has been characterized
by well-known Russian expert S. Markedonov as a "peace-keeping
rivalry". Actually, what we see at present is just a short but
extremely important period of rest which will allow us to think about
strengthening the Armenian party’s20political arguments that may be
replenished by new ones.

In this respect, it is extremely important to take into consideration
the main lessons of the past months, because they convinced us of the
impossibility of the speedy regulation of the relationship with Turkey,
the partiality of Turkey’s mediation, the country’s immoral ambitions
of using the first signs of ameliorating the bilateral relations with
purposes of impeding the process of the recognition of the Armenian
Genocide etc.

The necessity of counteracting the neighbors’ policy with new
counterbalances is becoming obvious.

So far, the Armenian diplomacy hasn’t properly used the stabilizing
and balancing role of Iran, the other neighbor of ours in the
South Caucasus. Of course, this cautiousness of Armenia has been
somehow conditioned by the concern of not becoming the target of the
international community’s negative attitude to Iran.

However, it should be born in mind that the same international
community’s attitude towards Russia following the recent
Russian-Georgian armed conflict did not absolutely prevent the Armenian
and Russian parties from continuing their strategic partnership. And
after the shift of Government in the United States, the international
community’s desire and opportunities of keeping a powerful country
like Iran under continuous pressure have sharply decreased.

Moreover, Iran is now the most interested party i n terms of
establishing Armenian control over the liberated territories
bordering on Nagorno Karabakh. Especially considering the fact
that the conversation here goes around establishing an international
peace-keeping mission in those territories – something that is becoming
a serious threat for Tehran.

Therefore, in case Turkey makes any attempt of becoming active,
the Armenian party may speak about its southern neighbors’ equal
sense of responsibility for the South Caucasian region. After all,
the territories of all the South Caucasian countries were historically
more attached to Iran rather than Turkey.

We also think that the Nagorno Karabakh Republic should apply to
the United Nations and other international organizations through
Armenia with a demand to investigate and condemn the ethnic cleansings
committed and the genocidal policy conducted against the Armenians in
the territory of Azerbaijan since 1918. And return of the liberated
territories or the possibility of Nagorno Karabakh’s existence
inside Azerbaijan, questions that are often addressed to the Armenian
diplomacy while being raised on different levels, must be conditioned
by the fact that Azerbaijan has never been condemned for the above-
mentioned acts against our nation.

In the near future, Armenia is required to pay special attention
to the issue of speeding up the construction of the Iran-Armenia
railway. At the same time, it is necessary to take advantage20of the
EU countries’ interest in the program aimed at the construction of the
Baku-Akhalkalaki-Yerevan highway, and to involve the representatives
of those countries in the Armenian-Georgian joint consortium.

However, the most important problem whose solution may, in the near
future, contribute to increasing the resistibility of Armenia and the
Armenian diplomacy, is the healing of the internal political life by
way of developing an atmosphere of mutual trust, initiating a dialogue
and finding civilized solutions to the existing problems.