ALEXANDER ISKANDARYAN: "RESULTS OF A REFERENDUM ON THE STATUS OF NAGORNO KARABAKH ARE ABSOLUTELY PREDICTABLE"

Today.Az
ws/politics/48959.html
Nov 13 2008
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with famous Armenian political scientist Alexander
Iskandaryan.

– How do you assess results of the meeting in Moscow, which ended in
signing of a declaration on the peaceful resolution of the Karabakh
conflict between the Presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia?

– The Moscow meeting of the three president proved what was clear
before it: at the current stage the settlement of the Karabakh
conflict is impossible. This declaration is a declaration in all
senses. It declares intentions, which is certainly not bad but can
hardly change the format of this protracted and complex problem,
like Nagorno Karabakh.

– Is it possible to say that Azerbaijan has officially fixed its
agreement for a referendum in Nagorno Karabakh on its status in
10-15 years in exchange for return of several occupied regions around
Nagorno Karabakh?

– It is possible to say whatever one wants. Moreover, it will
depend on the level of objectiveness of those who speak. In real,
the declaration can not be "an official agreement", such kind of
documents are not made in a hurry.

– What do you think will be the results of a referendum on the status
of Nagorno Karabakh?

– The results of the referendum on the status of Nagorno Karabakh
are absolutely predictable. The ethnic nature of the policy in
our region is great, the population will vote depending on ethnic
belonging. Thus, the results of any referendum can be predicted by
the number of people of any nationality. Therefore, the referendum can
not be a way of the problem settlement, as there is no other variant.

First of all, we should adopt a political settlement and then define
a place and issues of a referendum to attain the result, to which
the parties of the agreement came. But the political settlement is
impossible, therefore, we can argue for years among whom to hold
this referendum.

– Is it possible that within these 10-15 years from the moment of
liberation of a number of currently occupied regions of Azerbaijan,
our countries will develop such friendly and good-neighbor relations
that the status of Nagorno Karabakh will not be important?

– There is no such a possibility. This will not occur in a short
period of time. Generations are needed for that.

– What will be the balance of powers in the whole South Caucasus
region, its economic and political future in case of the settlement
of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict?

– The Karabakh conflict will not be settled in the near future. But
even if we imagine it, the South Caucasus will not turn into
Switzerland in an hour.

And the proof is Azerbaijan and Georgia. Political relations are not
bad, borders are open, there are communications, railroads are working,
pipelines are also working. And what? Azerbaijan is interesting for
Georgia as a source of energy, while Georgia for Azerbaijan as a
territory. The economies are integrated weekly, similar economies
are usually badly integrated.

This is a common event, for example, in Eastern Europe. Bulgaria
wants to integrate with Bosnia or Albania, while the second and the
third want integration with Germany. Nothing extraordinary will happen
even if Azerbaijan and Georgia involve Armenia with Karabakh, though,
of course, positive results will be recorded.

The same is in the internal political spheres. Armenia, Georgia
and Azerbaijan need to integrate with Europe, try to assimilate its
values, institutions, regulation mechanisms and not use each others
as an example, that they are trying to do with a temporary success.

As for the balance of powers, changes will accelerate here, but they
will not change the reality. Russia, Iran, Turkey and the United
States will remain players in the region. No one will quit it. Their
weights will undoubtedly, change, but they are strictly changing now.