EVEN PART OF CASPIAN HYDROCARBON RESOURCES IS INCOMMENSURABLE WITH RUSSIAN SUPPLIES
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
15.11.2008 GMT+04:00

The energy summit in Baku mostly pursued political goals, which is
quite natural, as Ilham Aliyev has to once more establish himself
in the eyes of his people as a president who always does what is
beneficial for his country.

Against the background of the world crisis and falling prices on
oil the 4th energy summit was organized in Baku on November 14. The
summit was of rather a great significance after the "five-day war"
changed the South Caucasus, since the war proved how "secure" it
is to transit hydrocarbon from the Caspian region to Europe. The
problems of security of hydrocarbons passing through the territory of
Georgia and Turkey had been discussed a lot, but, in all probability,
the war was necessary for total realization of it.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ It is especially incomprehensible why the Declaration
on outcomes of the 4th Energy Summit says: "We note the positive
experience and successful operation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan,
Baku-Novorossiysk, Baku-Supsa oil pipelines, Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum
and Turkey-Greece gas pipelines which provide efficient delivery of
oil and gas to world and European markets". Fifteen states of the
European Commission signed the Declaration, which in its authors’
opinion can protect Europe against the energy dictate of Russia. On
the eve of the summit the Azeri press actively spoke of "Russia’s
counteraction directed against holding the meeting", but Russia
remained more than neutral and it had all the grounds for it. In spite
of the falling prices on oil, even part of the Caspian hydrocarbon
resources remains incommensurable with Russian supplies. Besides,
the economy of Azerbaijan, despite its bright reports, is still far
from real progress and, most apparently, it will never be able to
catch up with that of Russia, which, on the whole, does not report
rapid advance either.

If we leave aside the mandatory statements on cooperation, friendship
and regional security, which, according to the Declaration authors,
are usually achieved exactly through energy independence, it should
be admitted that the document in essence contains nothing but common
good intentions. The Declaration was joined by Azerbaijan, Bulgaria,
Hungary, Greece, Georgia, Italy, the Baltic States, Poland, Romania,
the USA, Turkey, the Ukraine, Switzerland, and the European Commission.

It is noteworthy that the list excludes France, Great Britain and
Germany, also Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, let alone Iran. After
all, they have the richest supplies of oil and gas, not to mention
that Iran holds the 4th standing in oil production and Turkmenistan
is the world’s second largest holder of gas reserves. The absence
of Great Britain from this list seems a little strange too as the
British Petroleum (BP) is the operator of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline. Thus, London must have its own reasons for not signing
the Declaration, especially when the USA signed it. As for France
and Germany, they are more oriented towards Russian gas and oil,
which was proved at the EU-Russia summit in Nice.

The energy summit in Baku mostly pursued political goals, which
is quite natural, since Ilham Aliyev has to once more establish
himself in the eyes of his people as a president who always does
what is beneficial for his country. The fact that all the documents
he signed are just vain formality does not interest him at all. It
is more important to assure everyone that the world can’t simply do
without the Caspian oil. And however strange it may be, Aliyev is able
to convince some countries, among them Georgia and, sad as it may be,
the USA. All the rest know the price of promises of Official Baku,
and they prefer to keep silent.

However, let us return to the Declaration, which says: "We find
it important to continue pursuing policies aimed at diversifying
the oil and gas supply routes from the Caspian basin to world
and European markets. We emphasize with satisfaction that energy
projects diversifying the sources and routes of transportation of
oil and natural gas, linking the vast reserves of the Caspian basin
to world and European markets, provide great contribution to the
further strengthening of regional cooperation, create more favorable
conditions for a competitive environment and for mutual interests of
energy producer, consumer and transit countries".

The definition "vast reserves of the Caspian basin" arouses great
enthusiasm. The reserves of the Caspian Sea are really immense but
Azerbaijan owns only 1/5 of them. It has pretensions of nearly half
the reserves, and impudently abusing the indefinite status of the
Caspian Sea it pumps out oil of the neighbouring states. It should
also be mentioned that without the Kazakh oil the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline would not be functioning. Azerbaijan is simply in a beneficial
geographical location and has managed to preserve normal relations both
with the USA and Russia. However, this position is temporary and very
soon Baku will have to make a choice between these two super-states. On
the whole, either of the options is subject to failure and it is
the extent of losses that makes difference. It may so happen that
successful declarations in fact lead to political collapse, which is
much more serious than any most profitable economic project.

And lastly participants of the summit agreed "to continue efforts
to coordinate actions by the parties in implementing joint projects
aimed at strengthening energy security in Europe, especially gas
transit projects including the Turkey-Greece-Italy Gas Interconnector
(TGI), Nabucco and others routes through Georgia and Turkey and
other projects".