KARABAKH TRUCE BREAKS DOWN
By Samira Ahmedbeyli

Institute for War and Peace Reporting
Nov 20 2008
UK

Clash on ceasefire line coincides with mediators’ visit to region.

Armenian and Azerbaijani officials are giving sharply different
accounts of a skirmish in the Fizuli region near the ceasefire line
dividing their two forces.

Both sides acknowledge that one Azerbaijani soldier, 20-year-old
Orkhan Shamilov, died in the incident on the night of November 16 –
but each accuses the other of being responsible for the exchange of
fire just outside Nagorny Karabakh.

Azerbaijani ministry of defence spokesman Eldar Sabiroglu said that
Shamilov, who had been on watch that night, had responded to gunfire
coming from an Armenian unit on the other side of the so-called "line
of contact" established in 1994 that divides the two armed forces.

Sabiroglu said that after several minutes of firing, Shamilov had
attacked and killed two Armenians but had himself been killed. The
Armenians recovered their bodies but were unable to recover that
of Shamilov.

On November 19, the Armenians handed over the body of Shamilov.

In Karabakh, the Armenian side describes the incident as the second
serious violation of the ceasefire this year – following a battle on
March 3-4 which left around a dozen people dead – and puts the blame
on the Azerbaijanis.

Senor Hasatrian, spokesman for the Karabakh armed forces (a term
the Azerbaijani side does not accept), said that there had been
an Azerbaijani attack on Armenian positions, "On November 16, at
approximately 4 am, a special unit of the Azerbaijani army crossed a
section of the line of contact dividing the armed forces of Nagorny
Karabakh and Azerbaijan in the south-east and tried to attack positions
not far from the village of Ashagi Seidakhmedli."

Hasatrian said that the Armenian side had repulsed the attack and
the Azerbaijanis had retreated, leaving the body of one of their mean
behind. He said that his side had not suffered any dead or wounded.

Karabakh president Bako Saakian awarded medals to the Armenian soldiers
for repulsing an Azerbaijani attack.

Hasatrian emphasised that the attack had come at the moment when the
American, French and Russian negotiators on the Karabakh conflict –
the so-called Minsk Group – were visiting the region to try and build
on momentum made after the November 2 Moscow declaration signed by
the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia. In the declaration,
the leaders committed themselves to a peaceful resolution of the
conflict and to confidence-building measures.

In Karabakh, the incident has prompted widespread debate and
condemnation of Azerbaijan.

Analyst David Karabekian told IWPR, "The incident demonstrates the
essential need for strengthening the steps set out in the Moscow
declaration, namely the formation of a system of international security
for Nagorny Karabakh; the recognition that it is impossible to make
any further steps to settle the conflict without signing a legally
binding document between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorny Karabakh;
the acceptance by all sides of the conflict of a treaty strengthening
the ceasefire regime; and implementing confidence building measures."

Albert Voskanian, a leading human rights activist in Karabakh,
said the incident showed how vulnerable the 1994 ceasefire was. "A
fragile peace ought not to be broken and a new war will bring still
more human casualties," he said.

"As a person who knows about war at first hand and who has been dealing
with the problems of prisoners of war, hostages and missing people from
the years of the war to this day, I condemn any attempt to destabilise
the situation. The recent incident must be on the conscience of its
organisers, all the more so as today we can observe certain steps
forward in attempts to resolve the Karabakh issue."

"It’s almost 15 years since the ceasefire but the explosive
situation continues in a frozen form," said war veteran Sergei
Khachikian. "People continue to die from accidental explosions,
shots, attacks. I don’t know how long this situation of ‘no war,
no peace’ will continue. I only beg God one thing: may our children
have different lives from ours! We’ve seen too much blood!"

Azerbaijani military expert Uzeir Jafarov urged caution about the
significance of the incident.

"In my view the ceasefire regime is broken regularly along the whole
line, more in some places, less in others," said Jafarov. "The only
exception is Nakhichevan, where you could say that there is no shooting
between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It’s just that the public is better
informed now about these incidents."

Jafarov said that the armed forces on each side tended to use incidents
like this for their own benefit and that they were more inclined
to release information on them when the Minsk Group mediators were
visiting the region.

"In general, the ceasefire regime gets broken for political reasons,"
he said. "The military, headed by the ministers of defence are just
people who act according to political orders."

Samira Ahmedbeyli is a freelance journalist in Baku. Ashot Beglarian
is a freelance journalist in Nagorny Karabakh. The terminology used
in this article to describe the conflict was chosen by IWPR and not
by the authors.