OBAMA’S ELECTION FORCES TURKEY TO RETHINK ITS DEMANDS FROM ARMENIA
By Harut Sassounian

Noyan Tapan

Nov 20, 2008

Turkey has blockaded Armenia for the last 15 years with the vain
hope that this would force Armenian leaders to make concessions to
Ankara on several fronts: Abandon the pursuit of genocide recognition,
acknowledge Turkey’s territorial integrity, and accept Azerbaijan’s
jurisdiction over Artsakh (Karabagh). In return, Turkey offered to
lift the blockade and establish diplomatic relations with Armenia.

Armenia steadfastly rejected these unacceptable Turkish demands,
despite the economic hardships its people endured as a result of the
joint blockades imposed by Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Frustrated with the growing number of countries acknowledging the
Armenian Genocide in recent years, the Turkish government embarked
on a new scheme to try and split Armenia from the Diaspora, hoping
to undermine their joint efforts for the international acknowledgment
of the Armenian Genocide.

In recent months, because of the convergence of several factors –
internal turmoil in Armenia following the presidential elections and
increasing pressure on Yerevan by Western countries and Russia to
reconcile with Turkey – Armenia’s newly elected President offered to
accept the Turkish proposal to establish a joint historical commission
on the Genocide, but only after Turkey would lift its blockade and
establish diplomatic relations with Yerevan.

Shortly after Pres. Serzh Sargsyan’s declaration, the Russian-Georgian
war briefly disrupted the transport of goods between Black Sea ports
and Armenia, making the Armenian government more eager to seek
opening of the Turkish border, which would serve as an alternate
supply route. Moreover, Armenia expressed an interest in joining the
‘Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform,’ which was proposed
by Pres. Abdullah Gul ostensibly to create a closer relationship
between Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey. Pres. Gul’s
initiative would indirectly help Armenia to counter Azerbaijan’s
attempts to isolate and exclude Yerevan from all regional projects.

Turkey enthusiastically welcomed Armenia’s cooperative gestures. As
a result, Pres. Gul accepted Pres. Sargsyan’s invitation to come
to Yerevan – the first such visit by a Turkish leader – to watch a
soccer match between the national teams of the two countries. The
visit brought worldwide accolades to the Turkish president and
raised Turkey’s international stature at a time when the country
was desperately seeking the votes of U.N. members to win a coveted
Security Council seat.

Soon however, the Turkish scheme hit a series of snags. Armenia and
Turkey could not agree on the details – subject matter, composition,
and timing – of the proposed joint historical commission. Turkey,
on the other hand, was in a rush to set up the commission before the
start=2 0 of Barack Obama’s presidency on January 20, 2009, in order
to discourage the incoming U.S. administration from considering the
acknowledgment of the Armenian Genocide.

Meanwhile, Armenian officials were reluctant to take action on
the proposed commission, until Turkey opened the border first and
established diplomatic relations with Armenia. The Turkish government
apparently underestimated the resolve of Armenia’s leaders to stick by
these two preconditions and misjudged their determination to withstand
Western pressures on this issue.

After these misjudgments, the Turks made matters worse by insisting
that Armenia agree to return to Azerbaijan a portion of the territories
bordering Artsakh, before Ankara would agree to lift the blockade. This
unacceptable condition threw out of the window any possibility of
rapprochement between the two countries in the immediate future.

Complicating matters further, two new incidents last week proved
that Turkish attempts to drive a wedge between Armenia and the
Diaspora on the genocide issue had failed. Pres. Sargsyan, in an
interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung,
agreed with Diaspora leaders that the joint historical commission was
‘absolutely unnecessary.’ He stated: "We do not think that anything can
be achieved by it. We want to establish diplomatic relations between
the two countries, open the borders without any preconditions, and
afterwards, through an intergovernmental process,=2 0we can discuss all
issues pertaining to the neighboring countries. We do not consider the
recognition of the Genocide by Turkey as a precondition to establishing
relations. We desire the latter, but not at any cost. In the past,
European countries too did not establish historical commissions in
order to develop normal relations. Such an initiative could also mean
an attempt to mislead the international public, especially when it
is a multi-year process."

In another setback, the Turkish newspaper Zaman alleged that Armenia’s
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian had questioned the value of more
countries recognizing the Armenian Genocide, prompting him to issue
a statement refuting the Turkish report. "The recent news by the
Turkish press ascribed to Armenian officials about the international
recognition of the Armenian Genocide is distorted and presented
upside down. I have stated many times and I want to repeat again that
Armenian officials have never expressed and will never express an idea
in favor of suspension of the process of international recognition
of the Armenian genocide. Moreover, Armenia cannot tolerate any
expression of Armenian Genocide denial," Mr. Nalbandian stated.

Significantly, these setbacks occurred at a time when Turkey’s leaders
are expressing great anxiety over promises made by President-elect
Obama to recognize the Armenian Genocide. In fact, during his last
week’s trip to the United States, Prime Ministe r Recep Erdogan
repeatedly expressed his serious concern about Mr.

Obama’s announced intentions on the genocide. In fact, Turkish and
American officials have advised Mr. Erdogan that Pres. Obama would most
probably acknowledge the Armenian Genocide and the Congress could pass
a resolution on this issue, unless Turkey immediately takes the bold
step of lifting the blockade and establishing diplomatic relations
with Armenia.

Currently, the Turkish Prime Minister is in the process of gauging
the intentions of President-elect Obama on the Armenian Genocide by
communicating with his circle of close advisors. Should he determine
that Mr. Obama is intent on carrying out his campaign promises
on this issue, Mr. Erdogan could then quickly open the border and
establish diplomatic relations with Armenia, in order to preempt any
official action by the U.S. President and/or the Congress. However,
should Mr. Erdogan discover that Pres. Obama is hesitant on keeping
his campaign promises, the Turkish side would then continue making
stiff demands from Armenia.

Under these circumstances, Armenia’s leaders are in no particular
rush. They can patiently wait until they see what position the next
U.S. President would be taking on the Armenian Genocide. In any case,
the Armenian side has nothing to lose by waiting. On the contrary,
by biding its time, the Armenian government could well avoid making
concessions on Artsakh and refuse to establish=2 0the "unnecessary"
historical commission, while getting Turkey to lift the blockade.