KARABAKH SAID ITS WORD YEREVAN’S TURN CAME
Lilit Poghosyan

Hayots Ashkhar Daily
21 Nov 08
Armenia

They Shouldn’t Pull The Wool Over The People’s Eyes

Political Scientist Sergey Shakaryants expresses his viewpoint
regarding the last visit of the Co-Chairmen to the region.

"I’m confident and the last visit of the Co-Chairmen to the region also
showed that Karabakh issue won’t be settled in the coming one year.

The settlement of the conflict is not only and not as much conditioned
by the desire of the conflicting parties, it is rather conditioned
by big geopolitical maneuvers, that the superpowers realize in our
region for the last 16 years.

>From the first years of Armenia’s getting independent, various
mechanisms have been practiced in that political maneuver, beginning
from energy projects and communications, to interethnic clashes. At
the moment they practice the religious-political-educational factor,
the levers to "control" the region have become so various that the
countries like Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are unfortunately
unable to overcome, on their own, the trilateral or quadrilateral
attack of the interested states.

The problem is as follows: who will rule the region, on the one hand
to turn South Caucasus into a military fulcrum and on the other hand,
not to allow South Caucasus to turn into a military fulcrum against
someone.=2 0It is quite understandable that Russia and Iran are the
supporters of the second factor, with which Armenia is in very good
relations. NATO member states are the champions of the first factor,
and Armenia is in good relations with some of these countries as well
and with some we don’t have even diplomatic relations.

This rivalry, and the contradictions between the super-powers which
have their own interests in the region, at least at this stage make
the settlement of Karabakh issue unsolvable. But it is difficult to
say what can happen after one year, if certain circles start military
actions against Iran."

"From what you said we can draw a single conclusion, that nothing
depends on us and no one asks the opinion of the conflicting parties
especially Karabakh?"

"I wouldn’t say that. In case of being consistent Karabakh can become
a factor in regional processes and from now on it must try to take
actions in that direction.

Moreover it has already started. The President, the MPs, the
representatives of the executive body and the high-ranking officials
of the armed forces have already expressed their stance. And by the
way very harsh stance, saying that until Karabakh participates in
the negotiations as a competent unit, no one should hope that any
solution dictated from this or that capital city, can be brought to
life. Karabakh has in essence said its word now Yere van’s turn came.

By inviting the leaders of the parties for a consultation President
Serge Sargsyan was most probably trying to solve that issue. That
is to say to hear the standpoints of all the political forces and to
formulate a joint opinion: "How does society view the settlement of
the conflict.

Unfortunately we don’t have similar practice, because Karabakh issue
is the vital problem, which can unite us around one idea and far not
a person.

Either our society will unite like we did in 1988; by adopting a united
stance in this issue or they will remain split among two or more poles.

Anyhow the massage of the President, from Karabakh in this regard
gives hope."

"The activists of the Armenian Pan National Movement swear everything
was ok before 1998, Karabakh was involved in the negotiation process
as a full party, but the moment Robert Kocharyan came Karabakh was
withdrawn from the negotiations. Do you agree to these assessments?"

"I’m sorry but they shouldn’t pull the wool over the people’s
eyes. Karabakh was withdrawn from the negotiation format 11 years back,
after the Lisbon Summit in December 1996. Let those who were in power
during those years explain, whether it was a secret agreement or an
instruction imposed on Armenia by means of blackmail. Those who brought
Robert Kocharyan to Armenia from Stepanakert and appointed him a Prime
Minister and said that from that day on Armenia was to represent the
interests of Nagorno Karabakh in the negotiation process. In my view
everyone understand that the conversation is about the first President
"re-elected" by falsifications in 1996 and his team.

After 1998 Robert Kocharyan tried to review that agreement several
times and it is recorded in the press, you can have a look at
it. But because they had the signature of the previous President,
the Co-Chairmen and Azerbaijan refused it. In such circumstances,
to insist on Karabakh’s participation would have meant to torpedo
Minsk process. So they chose the least of the two evils, long-term,
even if fruitless meetings, and negotiations by bilateral format. Every
bullet has its billet.