RUSSIA HURRIES TO STRENGTHEN ITS POSITION IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS, TRYING TO SHIFT THE REGIONAL CENTER FROM TBILISI TO YEREVAN
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
20.11.2008 GMT+04:00

Armenia presently needs not promises of friendship and allied
relations, but a more balanced policy in relations with the Russian
Federation, which, however, should not presuppose secondary relations
with the EU or the USA.

While the US Government is being formed, Russia hurries to strengthen
its position in the South Caucasus, trying to shift the regional
center from Tbilisi to Yerevan. Yet, it is still difficult to say
what success Russia will achieve in the foreseeable future. But
the growing statements on the principle of the right of a nation
to self-determination, which Russian politicians of different ranks
have been mentioning oftener and oftener in their statements, give
grounds to believe that with Georgia retiring and Baku probably going
"free sailing" Russia takes the risk of being left face to face with
a very unreliable ally in the person of Turkey.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The foreign policy of Ankara directed to gaining
more independence, was only adopted last year, but it is already
taking on more clear-cut outlines. In the light of these changes,
agreeing on purchase of the Iranian gas for part of it to be transited
to Eastern Europe, Turkey actually takes steps, disregarding the USA,
which, by the way, is not a novelty.

That is why the role of Armenia in the region has somewhat grown,
which could not be observed rather a long time ago. Everybody has
somehow got used to the ungrounded statements on "outpost", "strategic
allies" and the like. As we have already mentioned before, Mikhail
Saakashvili made such a present to the RF, of which Russia could
not even dream. Provoking the "five-day war" and not even waiting for
assistance from "friends", the Georgian President actually released the
hands of Russia that had long been looking for a second base (besides
Armenia) for strengthening its position in the South Caucasus. And
it was done.

There is absolutely no doubt that statements on the right of a
nation to self-determination and the fake silence on the principle of
territorial integrity of a country are done merely for Abkhazia and
South Ossetia. But since this principle is universal, it can also be
relevant for Nagorno Karabakh, not to mention Transnistria. In the
latter’s case the conflict can be considered to be almost settled,
especially when the President of Moldova Vladimir Voronin is determined
to leave the GUAM that was originally founded to regulate conflicts,
but, in fact, guaranteed the transit of hydrocarbon from the Caspian
region to Europe, bypassing Russia. Today no one is interested in the
existence of the GUAM except for Azerbaijan and Georgia. However,
the future of this organization much depends on the policy to be
adopted by the new US Administration.

Nevertheless, it should be admitted that for the first time in the
past 20 years Russian diplomacy worked rather effectively. Signing
of the Maindorf Declaration just before the Presidential Elections
of the USA, President Medvedev’s message, where he clearly implied
to the USA that he was not going to sit like a stone image and wait
till anti-missile defence is launched in Eastern Europe, and, lastly,
frequent statements on the necessity to speedily and peacefully settle
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict drove the USA into a secondary position,
where it has to fall behind Russia. It is difficult to foretell how
long this position will last, especially with the global crisis going
on. Old Europe has already declared that it is going to cooperate
with Moscow. And the problems of Poland, the Czech Republic and the
Baltic states of the EU are almost forgotten about.

There is another minute point too. Baku will encounter more
difficulties in relations with Russia, than Tbilisi did. Constant
parade of the "inestimable oil supplies" and "military power" might
one day annoy the "sleeping dog", and it is still a question what
Russia’s reaction will be.

Meanwhile, in the Caspian post-Soviet territory Azerbaijan disposes
of the biggest naval forces after Russia. At the same time it has the
largest commercial fleet in the Caspian region. This means more than
fifty vessels of great displacement, capable of transporting troops
and military equipment. The USA and other NATO members lend a hand
to the formation of the Azerbaijani naval forces, which carry out
regular maneuvers inviting officers from Turkey and the USA. Total
military support offered to Baku is calculated to be several hundred
million dollars annually.

All this can’t but put us on our guard. It is clear that the naval
fleet of Azerbaijan can hardly back the army in case of the most
unfavourable solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but we should
consider this potential too. Presently Armenia needs not promises
of friendship and allied relations, but a more balanced policy in
relations with the RF, which, however, should not presuppose secondary
relations with the EU or the USA.