ARIF YUNUSOV: "THE CURRENT TALKS ARE HELD IN THE DIRECTION, FAVORABLE FOR ARMENIANS"
Today.Az
/politics/49218.html
Nov 25 2008
Azerbaijan
Day.Az interview with famous conflict expert Arif Yunusov.
– What can you say about the statement of member of Miatsum initiative
Alexander Kananyan that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan told the
leadership of self-declared Karabakh that they must withdraw forces
from 5 "liberated" regions and there will be held a referendum within
the next two years and then Kelbajar will return to Azerbaijan?
– I am not sure that Serzh Sargsyan really said it to the leadership
of the self-declared Nagorno Karabakh, as Karabakh conflict is a
good area for politicians to gain points. It does not matter who says
this. Let’s be logical and consider the realities.
Thus, it is clear that the negotiation process base on the proposals,
which have been almost fully formed in Madrid, this is why they are
sometimes called "Madrid principles". Much has been spoken about them
and this is not a special news that in line with them Armenians return
five regions, while the fate of the two others, including Kelbajar
and especially Lachin, will be solved later, Armenians will have
to return them after the settlement of the issue of the Karabakh
status. Internally displaced persons will also be returned to the
regions, given back to us.
There will start the process of restoration of infrastructure, as
well as the restoration of measures of trust. Peacekeeping forces
will also appear in the conflict area and later there will be held a
referendum and the status of Nagorno Karabakh will be settled. Thus,
I think this was the subject of talks between Serzh Sargsyan and
leadership of self-declared Nagorno Karabakh. This means that the
issue of the return of five occupied regions around NK in exchange
for a referendum was also discussed.
However, I am bewildered at the statement that the referendum will be
held in two years. It is unbelievable. The period of less than 10 years
is implied. Thus, the figure "2 years" seems to be Kananyan’s fancy for
stronger effect. I would repeat once again: there is nothing new for
those who are watching the situation. Even the games around the talks
are also not new. Such sharp statements have always been recorded.
– Is the replacement of powers in Armenia possible if the return of
five occupied regions around Nagorno Karabakh to Azerbaijan becomes
a reality?
– Certainly, Levon Ter-Petrosyan has already lost power due to the
Karabakh problem. Moreover, we can also recall shooting in the Armenian
parliament. Thus, nothing can be ruled out. But in real I suppose that
the current talks proceed in the direction, desired for Armenians and
we should become aware that most events in Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh
are a political game not a reality. Thus, all these loud statements
of some marginal "public organizations" like "Miatsum" or "liberated
lands" is just a mask, which should not be taken too seriously.
Talks often recall a trading on the market, when one side exaggerates
the prices, which the other belittles then and then an average
compromise price is found. Now, Armenians are demonstrating a show of
unwillingness to return the occupied lands around former NKAO, create
hysteria about the need to preserve the security zone by the help of
governmental poppets. Later they will agree to return our lands in
exchange for holding a referendum with a preliminarily predictable
result on separation of another part of our land.
Thus, such things should not be paid too much attention. This is a
part of a propaganda war and that is all.
– Which occupied lands can Armenians return without fare of mass
resentment in their country?
– If Armenians get the guaranteed consent of official Baku for the
definition of the status of Nagorno Karabakh by way of referendum in
exchange, there will not be any "explosion" or "mass resentment". I
would repeat that they may imitate this "resentment" and nothing more.
– How can two former presidents of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan and
Robert Kocharyan make use of the established situation?
– This is a different matter. Levon Ter-Petrosyan is already trying
to use it often very specifically. In fact, Serzh Sargsyan follows
Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s path in the improvement of the Armenian-Turkish
relations and the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. In such a
situation the criticism from the side of Levon Ter-Petrosyan proves
that different powers have united around him and he is just playing
into their hands, which causes nothing but regret.
The politician of this level must show the example of principality.
As for Robert Kocharyan, he can play his negative role by the help
of Dashnaks and others forces, especially in Nagorno Karabakh, by
using the Karabakh factor. But this will occur only in case he feels
a threat for his personal interests. Now there is a threat to it. And
as is known all tools are good in the politics.
– Is destabilization of situation in Armenia favorable for Azerbaijan
at the current stage?
– First of all, I do not see any serious signs of the growing
destabilization in Armenia. We are exaggerating everything. Armenia
has reached the top in March of this year. And now Sargsyan is firmly
controlling the situation. Second, destabilization can not always have
positive implications. What if Kocharyan returns to power? It would
be worse, I assure you. I do not even speak of whether we can use any
development of the situation in Armenia in our interests. That is,
whether there will be destabilization there or no, it won’t make any
difference for us. We have no thorough policy regarding Armenia.