SIGNS OF THAW IN TURKEY-ARMENIA TIES
Thomas Seibert

The National
6/FOREIGN/354535345/1013/SPORT
Nov 25 2008
United Arab Emirates

ISTANBUL // Divided by a painful past and a long-running conflict in
the Caucasus, Turkey and its neighbour Armenia, pushed by a unique
combination of internal and external factors, may be on the verge
of a historic rapprochement as high-level contacts between the two
countries gather steam, analysts say.

"It is our aim to completely normalise relations between the two
countries," Ali Babacan, the Turkish foreign minister, said after
a meeting Eduard Nalbandian, his Armenian counterpart, in Istanbul
on Monday. Mr Nalbandian, who visited Turkey for a meeting of the
Black Sea Economic Co-operation, a regional organisation that has its
headquarters in Istanbul, shared Mr Babacan’s optimism. "I think this
is a very good moment and we have a chance to do it now, to turn the
page together, to open the border, to normalise relations," he said.

Despite sharing a 300-kilometre border, Turkey and Armenia have no
diplomatic relations, and the border is closed. Relations have been
overshadowed by the death of hundreds of thousands of Armenians in
today’s Turkey during the First World War, killings that constituted
the modern world’s first genocide according to Armenia, and by a
bloody conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian enclave on the
territory of Turkey’s close ally, Azerbaijan.

But a recent thaw that started when Turkey’s president, Abdullah Gul,
visited the Armenian capital, Yerevan, for a football match in early
September – becoming the first Turkish head of state to visit the
neighbour – has nourished hopes that better times are ahead.

"Since Gul’s visit to Armenia, there has been a definite improvement
in the general atmosphere," said Sinan Ulgen, head of the Centre for
Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a think tank in Istanbul. "There
have been a series of meetings that helped to overcome some of the
lack of trust."

Analysts agree that the key to translating this improved political
climate into concrete steps to bring the two countries closer lies
in the progress on the Karabakh issue.

Since a ceasefire ended the war over the enclave in 1994, Armenia
and Azerbaijan have failed to resolve the dispute. At a meeting with
Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, in Moscow this month, Serzh
Sarkisian, the president of Armenia, and Ilham Aliyev, the president
of Azerbaijan, agreed to push for a "political settlement" but did
not give details.

Mr Ulgen said Armenia was expected to make some kind of gesture
in connection with the Karabakh question in the near future and
that this step would enable Turkey to reciprocate by opening the
border. "There is a new willingness on the Armenian side. They are
aware that Turkey cannot move without it. This was made very clear
to the Armenian government by the Turkish authorities."

Cengiz Candar, one of the most respected foreign policy commentators
in Turkey, wrote in yesterday’s Radikal newspaper that once the
"Azerbaijan burden" had been lifted, Ankara would be able to move
fast in improving relations with Armenia. "If there is no ‘traffic
accident’, we will see a normalisation of Turkish-Armenian relations,
which means the establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening
of the ground border, in the first quarter of 2009," Mr Candar wrote.

Mr Babacan and Mr Nalbandian agreed to continue bilateral talks. A
highlight planned for the coming year is a visit by Mr Sarkisian
to Turkey in October for another match between the two national
football teams.

Such a visit would carry enormous significance. Armenia and many
international experts said the government of what was then the Ottoman
Empire decided to get rid of Armenians in Anatolia once and for all
in 1915 and killed 1.5 million people; but Turkey, which puts the
number of victims much lower, said the deaths were the result of a
resettlement programme in chaotic wartime conditions and that many
ethnic Turks were killed as well.

In an interview with the Turkish daily newspaper Zaman published
yesterday, Mr Nalbandian indicated his government might be warming
to the Turkish idea of creating a joint commission of historians to
look into the disputed genocide issue. According to the newspaper,
Mr Nalbandian said the position of his government concerning the
commission had changed.

Also, the Turkish press has been reporting that the national carrier
Turkish Airlines wants to start charter flights to Yerevan.

"There is a new climate to solve the problems in the region," Mr
Babacan said shortly before Mr Nalbandian’s visit to Istanbul. "This
is an important window of opportunity."

This window has been opened by many different developments that have
come together, Mr Ulgen said. "There is a confluence of factors." On
the Turkish side, there is the personal initiative of Mr Gul as well
as a recognition that the traditional "policy of obstructionism"
towards Armenia had not paid off. Newspaper commentators also point
to the possibility that the new administration in Washington may
recognise the killings of the Armenians as genocide and that the best
chance for Turkey to prevent that from happening is an improvement
in relations with Armenia.

For its part, Armenia wants to break out of the isolation brought on
by the simmering conflicts with neighbours Turkey and Azerbaijan. In
addition, the Russian-Georgian war in the summer had demonstrated to
the Armenians "that frozen conflicts in the region can come back to
haunt leaders in the region", Mr Ulgen said.

Although new steps, such as the establishment of official relations,
would not directly address the thorny genocide question, Turkey
has shown in its rapprochement with its western neighbour Greece in
recent years that it is possible to put into place confidence-building
measures and to improve relations without tackling the most sensitive
issues head-on. Turkey and Greece are much closer today than they
were 10 years ago, although they have made no progress in resolving
their dispute concerning territorial claims in the Aegean.

Still, the much-praised window of opportunity in the Caucasus will not
stay open forever. Turkey and Armenia will have to move quickly to come
up with tangible improvements, such as a boom in cross-border trade,
if they do not want to risk a rise of internal pressures pushing for
a return to the old policies of enmity.

"Leaders should show their commitment for progress and show their
populations concrete results," Mr Ulgen said.