THIS MAY HAPPEN IN 15-20 DAYS
by Lusine Barseghyan

Haykakan Zhamanak
Nov 18 2008
Armenia

An interview with a former Foreign Ministry spokesperson and currently
a member of the [opposition] Armenian National Congress, Vladimir
Karapetyan.

[Correspondent] Mr Karapetyan, where do you think these processes
are leading to; may everything really result in [Armenian President]
Serzh Sargsyan ceding Karabakh?

[Karapetyan] I believe there is no talk about ceding. We are just
facing another challenge: at present the negotiations process is
entering a new stage where the conflicting sides are required to
specify approaches regarding the settlement of the conflict; the
mediator countries, each being guided by its own interests, are
sending more precise messages regarding what should be recorded in
the settlement document in the future. This is the reason they are
saying more frequently at present that certain agreements can be
reached in the Karabakh issue in the future.

However, there is a fine point here, which has not been
lately discussed much either by opposition or government
representatives. Although at issue is a contract or an agreement,
this is only part of the peace process: the Madrid document consists
of settlement principles, and the sides are expected to agree on
those. I can see danger in agreement on those principles in their
current form. Representatives of the government say that a quick
settlement of the conflict is not possible at present. In fact,
a comprehensive agreement on the settlement of a conflict can be a
very voluminous document, which encompasses all elements and aspects
of the settlement. However, this kind of agreement is not discussed
at all at present. What we are talking about and what the sides are
negotiating at present is a document on settlement principles.

[Passage omitted: Karapetyan speaks about importance of the document
on settlement principles]

[Correspondent] Mr Karapetyan, now in effect the public and also
political circles are not familiar with the "Madrid principles",
do you know what they are about?

[Karapetyan] I myself do not know, even if I knew, taking into
consideration my former position, I would not have liked to speak
about provisions which are not public. At the same time, as there are
provisions, which have been announced in public, I will speak about
those. It was announced in 2006 that there is no agreement on ceding
two districts that are important for us – Lacin and Kalbacar.

[passage omitted: background]

No-one has spoken to us about these important issues since that
time. Only recently some mediators and senior Turkish officials
spoke about the readiness of the current Armenian government to
cede all of the seven districts [Armenian-controlled territories
around Karabakh]. Neither [President] Serzh Sargsyan nor the foreign
minister have so far dispelled our anxiety regarding these problems,
especially concerning Kalbacar. If it turns out that Sargsyan has gone
for concessions in the issue of Kalbacar and Lacin, then explanations
should be given to Armenia’s population regarding the reason for the
already defeatist policy. Also it should be clearly said why Sargsyan
is doing something that [former presidents] Levon Ter-Petrosyan and
[Robert] Kocharyan did not do.

The [opposition] Armenian National Congress said that it is not against
a settlement within the framework of the "Madrid principles"; but at
least these two problems, as well as precise details of a referendum
– its date, participants, all technical and organizational issues –
should be clear, as there is a concern that the return of Azerbaijanis
will negatively affect the demographic situation in Karabakh,
in particular. That is, the issue of Kalbacar should be clear,
Lacin must have the same status as Karabakh and all organizational
and technical issues connected with the referendum should be very
precisely presented. This is a very important issue.

[Passage omitted: minor details]

[Correspondent] Taking into consideration Serzh Sargsyan’s positions,
what concerns do you have and what can be the format of this agreement?

[Karapetyan] The concerns are mainly conditioned by the speed with
which the process started to develop. That is Serzh Sargsyan visited
[Nagornyy Karabakh’s capital] Stepanakert [Xankandi] twice within a
very short period of time, a tripartite meeting between the foreign
ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and – I do not know why – Turkey
took place. We and Azerbaijan have nothing to discuss except for the
Karabakh issue, as they are rejecting any other cooperation with
us unless the Karabakh issue is settled. What does Turkey have to
do here, if we are not discussing anything else? The Karabakh issue
was raised during Serzh Sargsyan’s visit to Paris and Brussels after
visiting Moscow.

The most important thing is Armenia’s current vulnerable
situation. Especially that we are now required to implement resolutions
1609 and 1620 of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
Europe, which say in black and white that there is a question mark
over Armenia’s reliability as a Council of Europe member until these
requirements are carried out. These requirements have not been carried
out, and thus Armenia’s reliability is questioned. That is, we are
discussing a vital issue while currently being in a vulnerable
situation. That is, now Serzh Sargsyan is not in a position to
oppose challenges and problems which will emerge in the process of
negotiations. Our concern is connected with this. If he was more
self-confident, if he had a corresponding reserve of legitimacy,
he would have no problems, and the people would not have so many
concerns, they would have been very confident that the government
will take into consideration all of their problems and concerns and
that the state interests of Armenia will be clearly defended.

[Correspondent] In fact, they say that the next meeting is scheduled
to be held in Washington in December. Do you think a document may be
signed during that period?

[Karapetyan] What I am concerned about is that the government and
the media that serves the government, of course, within acceptable
limits, do not speak about the current process. They have established
an atmosphere as if nothing is happening, [as if] there is no new
developments in the process, and everything is as usual. Actually,
quite deep processes are taking place and it cannot be ruled out
that the sides will come to an "agreement" under some pressure. This
may happen in the coming 15-20 days. The visit of the [OSCE Minsk
Group] co-chairs, which immediately followed the meeting in Moscow,
is explained by this.