HOPE PREVAILS ON ARMENIAN BORDER
Today’s Zaman
Nov 26 2008
Turkey
Abandoned since the border closed in 1993, the Akhurian train station
in the province of Gumri once served as a transit point for goods
traveling between Armenia and Turkey.
Armenian citizens are growing increasingly hopeful that a long-awaited
opening of the country’s border with Turkey will occur in their
lifetimes, easing the economic difficulties that this closure and
the cutting off of ties between their country and Turkey have caused.
Hasmik Petrosyan is a 59-year-old Armenian primary school teacher
living in the village of Shirakavan, which borders Turkey’s Kars
province. With hospitality similar to her Turkish neighbors, she
explains what life is like in her village as she invited a group of
mostly Turkish visitors to her humble home filled with her warmth.
"The economy is very bad here. There is no water to drink, no water for
agriculture. The village has no gas. There is no infrastructure. Before
1993, the situation was much better."
She’s referring to the severed diplomatic ties between Armenia and
Turkey, which closed its border in 1993 in protest of the Armenian
occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. The closure of the border
has devastated the Armenian economy because the country is dependent
on other countries for energy supplies and most raw materials.
As the only breadwinner at home, Petrosyan earns about $200; her
bedridden husband gets $60 in pension a month. Her grown son and
daughter cannot find work. But there is hope in her striking green eyes
that things are going to get better, and her gloomy expression changes
to a wide smile when she says, "We will smile when the border opens."
Even in Yerevan, there are homes without gas and running water behind
the brightness of Western-style shops and brand names lining some of
the main streets of the capital. Petrosyan represents most Armenians,
who believe that the economy will get better once the border is opened
as Turkey and Armenia give positive signs that relations will improve.
In Ä°stanbul on Monday, Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian
described the ongoing talks as "very positive and sincere." Before
a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, he said that by
normalization, he meant the opening of the border and the restoration
of diplomatic relations.
"Armenia is ready to establish bilateral relations without any
preconditions, and we are expecting the same from the Turkish side,"
Nalbandian said. "This is not a favor. It is in the interest of Turkey
to open the border, and this is in the interest of Armenia."
Land routes through Georgia and Iran are inadequate or unreliable
for landlocked Armenia, which is forced to pay higher transit costs
because of the closed border with Turkey, as 25 percent of Armenia’s
imports are from Turkey. Even though the Turkish province of Kars is
20 kilometers away, it takes at least 14 hours for a truck to reach
Armenia through Georgia, increasing the costs for Armenia by at least
20 percent.
"It will mean economic activity for both sides and greater access to
markets," said Richard Giragosian, an independent analyst who moved
from the United States to Armenia about two years ago.
The trade volume between the two countries is $65 million even with
closed borders. For Turkey, opening the border will be more important
politically than economically.
"Turkey is an important energy hub, and it can expand that significance
as a regional transit hub if the border is opened. It is also in line
with Turkey’s policies to engage in good relations with its neighbors,"
Giragosian said, adding that an open border would also benefit the
Kurdish dominated regions economically.
Armenia has mines and rock and some construction materials for
export. It mostly buys textiles and agricultural products from Turkey.
Armenian economy has improved following the 1994 cease-fire in
Nagorno-Karabakh. New sectors, such as precious stone processing and
jewelry making, information and communication technology and tourism
have begun to supplement more traditional sectors such as agriculture.
Giragosian said the World Bank predicts an optimistic 10 percent rise
in the gross domestic product (GDP), assuming that opening the border
with Azerbaijan will follow, but several economists predict a more
realistic 3 percent to 4 percent increase.
Similar to other newly independent states of the former Soviet Union,
Armenia is struggling to make the transition from communism to a
market economy. Its old Soviet trading partners are gone, and Russian
investors have taken their place.
Professor Tatoul Manasserian from Yerevan State University said
dependence on Russia is a threat for Armenia.
"Take out Russia, you don’t have any foreign direct investment,"
he said. "Dependency is a growing threat to Armenia. An open border
will lower risks for other investors."
He also said the Armenian government needs to create an environment
favorable for investors because opening the border will be a shock
to the Armenian system in which oligarchs are established to exploit.
"Many of the oligarchs are in the parliament. In the ruling Republican
Party, there may be 10 deputies who are not oligarchs," Manasserian
said.
There may be more forces in Armenia who would oppose opening the
border with Turkey.
Giragosian explained that in addition to the oligarchs, there are
nationalists, the Armenian diaspora, who press for the Turkish
recognition of the Armenian genocide, and the Armenian military,
which used the closed borders to exaggerate the defense spending by
depicting Turkey as a threat.
Then why is the Armenian government ready to open the border when
there are influential forces for the continuation of the status quo?
Giragosian said it’s because public opinion is in favor of opening the
border. Moreover, a Dashnak party (Armenian Revolutionary Federation
or Dashnaktsutyun), currently a governing coalition member known for
its nationalist stance, did not oppose the government’s rapprochement
with Turkey.
Manasserian is hopeful that Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan and
Prime Minister Tigran Sarksyan can prepare the country for change
because they are more flexible compared with former leaders.
"The most important thing is that Turkey and Armenia are talking to
each other, have direct relations. Their talks are not mediated by
others," he added.
Serzh Sarksyan will visit Turkey in October 2009 to watch a game
between the national soccer teams of the two countries, reciprocating
a similar visit by Turkish President Abdullah Gul in September.
Turkish-Armenian relations have gained momentum after a regional crisis
erupted following a Georgian military offensive in its Russian-backed
breakaway region of South Ossetia. Ankara came up with a proposal to
prevent future disputes. The Turkish government promoted an initiative
called the Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform, supported by
visits to Moscow, Tbilisi and Baku. Armenia also backed the idea.
Observers agree that the Caucasus stability initiative made Turkey
directly engage with Armenia. The two sides have been secretly
negotiating for the past two years.
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