PanARMENIAN.Net

The collapse of «colour revolutions» was inevitable

Administration of the leaving President of the USA put an end to the
excessive ambitions of Mikhail Saakashvili, and what will Barack Obama
do is still a question. Most likely he will handle the financial
crisis.
27.11.2008 GMT+04:00

The final nail into the grave of the Georgian «Rose Revolution» was
driven by the statement of Assistant Secretary of State Daniel
Fried. `NATO member-states recognize that Georgia and Ukraine have a
lot of work to do to meet NATO’s standards and requirements, and they
acknowledge it themselves. They have different challenges. These are
different countries. But they have a lot of work. There was never ever
a discussion of actually extending to either Georgia or Ukraine an
invitation to join NATO. This is, by all accounts, some time away,
matter of years, and the Georgians and the Ukrainians acknowledge
this,’ Fried said.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Administration of the leaving President of the USA
put an end to the excessive ambitions of Mikhail Saakashvili, and what
will Barack Obama do is still a question. Most likely he will be busy
handling the financial crisis, and will, evidently, not be in the
right mood for dealing either with Georgia or with the Ukraine. The
reason for this can hardly lie in the August war that broke out so
untimely and ended so sadly for Georgia. Actually, there was no other
way out. Russia can be enraged to a certain degree, but,
unfortunately, the President of Georgia neither realized it nor
listened to the warnings from Washington. However, we dare hope that
even without the ill-fated war the «rose» coalition would anyway cease
to exist. Direct accusations from ex-speaker Nino Burjanadze, and
earlier the trial against Minister of Defense Irakli Okruashvili
compelled Tbilisi to reconsider its strategy. And if we also take into
consideration the statement of ex-ambassador of Georgia to Moscow Eros
Kitsmarishvili, who noted that it was Georgia that launched the August
war, it immediately becomes clear that too little time is left till
the end of Saakashvili’s power. It may last for some more time, say
till April 2009, but then opposition will once again overturn
Georgia. It was not done with the hope that George Bush would not let
down the «obedient child» and the «leading light of democracy». Simply
once more Tbilisi forgot that the United States has always pursued and
will pursue its own interests. Roughly speaking, Georgia was
«surrendered» in order not to finally break off relations with
Russia. By the way, initiators of the «surrender» were rather
Europeans than the Americans. Just it so happened that the interests
of the EU and those of the USA matched.

French and German officials were especially uncertain if NATO would be
able to protect Georgia, and they worried much over the reckless
actions of President Saakashvili. But on the other hand neither the
USA nor Europe wants to give the impression that the outcome of the
quarrel over the Membership Action Plan (MAP) is highly influenced by
resistance from Moscow.

Things are neither enjoyable in the Ukraine, where the «Rose
Revolution» has simply stalled. Only 5.4% of the population backs up
Victor Yushchenko now. According to western press reports, `With
reforms not made and promises not kept, the vast majority of
Ukrainians say their country is headed in the wrong direction. An
economic emergency can focus thinking and perhaps turn squabbling
politicians into responsible adults who put Ukraine’s potential ahead
of their own’. Having 1/4 of the most fruitful lands in the world,
Ukraine could have become an agricultural giant, if it had developed
laws on land. Being a biggest market on a Black Sea coast and having a
population of 46 million people, she could have attracted more
international investments if law leadership had been established
here. However, Ukraine failed. Like every economy in the world Ukraine
had an access to low credits, thanks to which Kiev became an
outstanding gigantic city, where the cost of living is much higher
than in any other west-European capital. But now when credits have
exhausted the Government had to turn to the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) for a gigantic loan of $16.5 billion.

The collapse of «colour revolutions» on the post-Soviet territory is
quite natural and it was simply inevitable. The stake on democracy and
free market, of which George Bush spoke with great enthusiasm, proved
to be premature.

Karine Ter-Sahakyan
«PanARMENIAN.Net» analytical department