"EASTERN PARTNERSHIP" HAS BEEN ADOPTED TO KEEP THE BALANCE OF POWER THAT WAS UPSET ON THE POST-SOVIET TERRITORY

PanARMENIAN.Net
04.12.2008 GMT+04:00

Unlike Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as Moldova and Belarus
have not yet determined their position in priorities: whether to
choose the European way or to finally head for Russia.

South Caucasus states made another step towards European
integration. The European Commission decided to back the initiative
of "Eastern Partnership", which presupposes closer cooperation with
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and the Ukraine. According
to Jose Manuel Barroso, the Commission president, only with
strong political will and commitment on both sides will the Eastern
Partnership achieve its objective of political association and economic
integration. "We need to make an even greater investment in mutual
stability and prosperity. This will be quickly compensated by important
political and economic benefits and will lead to more stability and
security both for the EU and for our Eastern partners," Barroso stated.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ After August 2008 developments in the Caucasus,
as well as in the whole world sped up, and "Eastern Partnership"
was adopted to keep the balance of power upset on the post-Soviet
territory. In our opinion, with this move the EU first of all aims
to cut down Russia’s influence and power in the region, as well as
to have a more unyielding position in talks with Moscow. After the
latest NATO summit in Brussels, when Georgia and Ukraine were refused
into Membership Action Plan (MAP), stance of the West in the region
may become more vulnerable. Unlike Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan,
as well as Moldova and Belarus have not yet determined their position
in priorities: whether to choose the European way or to finally head
for Russia. On the whole, in either case the post-Soviet countries are
subject to obedience, and it is still a question which Big Brother
would be better to choose. In fact, in such cases the notion of
good or bad is generally replaced by the concept of "expediency",
and there is no choice as such. Neither are there clear perspectives
as to the outcome of partnership with the EU or Russia.

The draft communique proposes holding an "Eastern Partnership Summit"
in June 2009 to launch the project. Follow-up meetings of EU and
Eastern Partnership foreign ministers are to take place each Spring,
while "Senior officials" from the "27 + 5(6)" countries are to meet
twice yearly to prepare for the ministerials. The European Partnership
is to raise the EU’s per capita spending in the region twice by 2013
and 3.3 times by 2020. The shift will cost Ð~B2.1 billion, atop the
lost income of Ð~B75 million per year as a result of waiving EU visa
costs. Under the EU’s "Eastern Partnership" initiative, talks would
be conducted on creating visa free travel in the long-term, the
six countries – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and
Ukraine – would be eligible for comprehensive free trade agreements,
and EU-funded educational, environmental and energy supply exchange
programmes would be organized.

According to The Financial Times, the plan’s primary purpose is to
raise the EU’s profile and reinforce political and economic stability
in the area between the 27-nation bloc and Russia – a region that
Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, laid claim to as a "privileged"
sphere of influence after the fighting in Georgia.

In the words of Karen Bekaryan, Head of the "European Integration"
NGO, changing the format of relations between the EU and the European
Neighborhood Policy (ENP) states was dictated by time and by the
problems that the ENP faced in the process of its realization. "As
to the benefit Armenia can derive from the Eastern Partnership,
it’s apparent. New programs will be launched, economic cooperation
will expand; Armenia will be rendered assistance in implementation
of reforms it needs so much," Bekaryan noted.

However, Azerbaijan has a different view on the matter. According
to Azeri political analyst Zardusht Alizade, democracy ideals are
alien to the current Azerbaijani leadership, that is why instead
of getting down to work, it will take to imitation. "Some laws will
definitely be amended, but, most apparently, they will not work. Any
measures suggested under the program "Eastern Partnership" and aimed
at creation of active civil society in Azerbaijan will be met with
bitter hostility by the authorities. The latter have no state, and,
accordingly, they see no point for Azerbaijan to integrate into the
EU," Alizade believes. And, basically, he is right. Official Baku
greatly fears democracy, which will not tolerate intimidating the
public and making a fool of them. As for EU membership, Azerbaijan,
like Armenia, is still too far from it. But unlike Armenia that either
by word of mouth or in practice does not yearn for integration into
the European Union, as it can see by Turkey’s example how difficult
it is, Azerbaijan for some reason is sure that sooner or later
it will become a EU member and for the sake of oil which, by the
way, will soon be over Brussels should turn a blind eye to complete
absence of democracy in the country. Though, if the pipelines continue
functioning, violation of human rights can be treated quietly, but it’s
a long way in the future and Turkey’s example is again educational. No
matter how hard Ankara tried, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan did not serve as a
permit to Europe in spite of the fact that certain reforms are being
carried out in Turkey – though slowly, unwillingly, something is being
done anyway. Baku lacks even slow development, which cannot be said
about Armenia. And, as we have mentioned more than once, it may even
happen so, that with successful course of events and with a change
of balance in the region, Armenia should become a EU member sooner
than Turkey. And in that case "Eastern Partnership" might serve as
an additional stimulus for Armenia to refuse care from Moscow.

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