Birmingham Star, AL
Dec 3 2008

Azerbaijan balancing strategic interests

Birmingham Star
Wednesday 3rd December, 2008

The newly reelected President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, was sworn
in for a second term last month after winning the October 15th
election with 89 percent of the vote.

Opposition parties boycotted the election, and monitors from the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe criticized the
poll’s shortcomings, especially during counting and tabulation.

But whatever the shortcomings of the election, President Aliyev enjoys
enormous popularity in his own country, according to Paul Goble,
Director of Research and Publications at the Azerbaijan Diplomatic
Academy in Baku. Speaking with host Judith Latham of VOA News Now’s
International Press Club, Goble says, even if the election had been
fully free and fair with all the major parties taking part, the
Azerbaijani President would still have been reelected with a
significant majority.

The Azerbaijan perspective

Mr. Aliyev’s election victory cemented his family’s long grip on power
in Azerbaijan. He was elected in 2003 following the death of his
father, Heydar Aliyev, who himself dominated politics in the country
for 30 years. Paul Goble says that stability has been an important
factor in one of the most dangerous and unstable parts of the world. A
key reason is Azerbaijan’s strategic position on the pipeline carrying
crude oil from the Caspian Sea through Georgia and Turkey. Goble notes
that Azerbaijan sits at a unique juncture of a north-south, and an
east-west, axis of influence. Therefore, he says, Azerbaijan almost
has to pursue what President Aliyev has called a `balanced’ foreign
policy, taking into account the views of Russia, Iran, Central Asia,
Turkey, Europe, and the United States. And as Goble points out, the
recent war in Georgia demonstrated that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline is not absolutely secure.

A Georgian Perspective

Georgian journalist and political analyst Ghia Abashidze in Tbilisi
agrees. Abashidze says the war with Russia in August made the issue of
energy supplies in the Caucasus abundantly clear to
everyone. According to the latest reports, Abashidze says, the
pipeline is not working at its full prewar capacity, and it is unclear
when it will. And that’s not only because of the world economic crisis
but also because of the aftermath of last summer’s war. There are
still Russian troops on Georgian soil, so investors are reluctant to
restart the pipeline at its full capacity, Abashidze says.

Nonetheless, Ghia Abashidze says the Georgian leadership sees
Azerbaijani President Aliyev’s reelection in a positive light. People
there remember how Azerbaijan helped Georgia in recent years when
Russia cut off gas and energy supplies, he says, so Georgians expect
that friendly relations with Azeris will continue.

An Armenian Perspective

However, relations between Baku and Yerevan are fraught with tension
because of a long-standing struggle between Azerbaijan and Armenia
over the separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh. According to Paul
Goble, Moscow has not played a very helpful role there, despite the
new Russian President’s overtures to both sides.

The reality is that the Russian government has not wanted an agreement
between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Goble says. He suggests that President
Dmitri Medvedev may have invited the presidents of Armenia and
Azerbaijan to go to Moscow last month for negotiations partly as a way
of demonstrating Russia’s preeminent position vis-a-vis the other
Minsk Group countries. Goble says that, if Moscow decides it is in its
greater interest to back Azerbaijan, there will be in his words a
`possibility of movement.’ But, he adds Russia’s geopolitical
calculations in the southern Caucasus have clearly changed.

Emil Sanamyan, Washington editor of the Armenian Reporter, agrees with
Paul Goble that the Kremlin might have ulterior motives in last
month’s meetings. Sanamyan says Russia’s brokering of talks does not
necessarily aim at resolution and agreement, but rather is an attempt
to recapture the dominance it used to have in the region. And in fact
Armenian President Serge Sarkissian made the point that, after Georgia
failed in its recent attack on South Ossetia, Azerbaijan would
probably think twice about using military options in
Nagorno-Karabakh. Sanamyan suggests that factor alone may improve the
prospects for a peace deal.

U.S. Policy Perspective

According to Paul Goble, Azerbaijan is critically important to
Washington as well as to Moscow. First, he says, there is an interest
in access to oil and gas. Second, he notes there are strategic
considerations and making sure that Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia
understand that the `east-west line’ is more beneficial to them. And
third, Goble cautions, progress toward democracy in the region should
not be sacrificed in the name of geo-strategic or economic interests.

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