BUREAUCRACY, DIASPORA "HAWKS" OBSTRUCT TURKISH-ARMENIAN RAPPROCHEMENT

Zaman
Dec 5 2008
Turkey

Time works against Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. There are obvious
rules in conflict resolution, but it can only be successful if the
will to act overlaps with time management. Slowing down often increases
the chances for counter-dynamics to sabotage it.

The current situation in the flirt between Yerevan and Ankara is
becoming rather worrisome in the sense that it may turn out to be
an opportunity missed. It all began with the right moves. Turkish
President Abdullah Gul Enhanced Coverage LinkingAbdullah Gul -Search
using: Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days accepted an
invitation to visit Yerevan and watch a soccer match between the two
countries’ national teams, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed
to proceed with talks on the normalization of relations and Foreign
Minister Ali Babacan looked very pleased that all that was happening.

But there is much more to it than sheer good will. How is work on the
diplomatic level proceeding? Beyond hope, much more is needed. I met
a foreign diplomat the other day. Knowing his "insider’s insight," I
asked him how it all looked. He was not enthusiastic. "On the Turkish
side, I see no problem with either the Office of the President or
with the government," he said. "It is the bureaucracy that worries
me." He was hinting at "some officials" within the Turkish Foreign
Ministry whom he regarded as possible "delay and let it rot" factors
in the process.

But, it also seems that there are differences in how to approach the
"pace" of negotiations on the political level. Gul has been intent on
a firm, swift, target-based method which stems from the concern that
the attitude of the administration of US President-elect Barack Obama
Enhanced Coverage LinkingBarack Obama -Search using: Biographies Plus
News News, Most Recent 60 Days towards recognition of the profoundly
tragic events of 1915 as "genocide" is real – just as much as the
president-elect’s using the G-word is highly possible.

For Gul, the progress in ongoing, speedy talks between Ankara and
Yerevan will not only benefit both countries and the region, but also
serve as a "pre-emptive element" to persuade Obama, Enhanced Coverage
LinkingObama, -Search using: Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60
Days Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton that the key issues between Armenia
and Turkey deserve at least a serious try to be resolved. Given his
long-term engagement and sincerity on the issue, Gul can hardly be
blamed for cynical aversion or demonic manipulation.

However, for Erdogan, this issue – as well as most others – is strictly
tied to the critical local elections. He wants to see progress in
slow motion and is not willing to be a target of political rivalry
and populism in the hunt for votes. Babacan will have to pay more
attention to what he says rather than to what the president does.

Meanwhile, as could easily have been predicted, hawks within the
Armenian diaspora are in motion. Intense lobbying, both publicly
and behind closed doors, was initiated to squeeze the Serzh Sarksyan
administration to slow down talks, if not terminate them altogether.

Armenian hawks’ entry into the arena is fuelled by the fear that
the talks, if ended successfully, will help evaporate the historic
demands, the three R’s – recognition (of "genocide"), reparation,
restitution. They base their game on the traditional Armenian mistrust
of Ankara, a centre of evasion and shrewdness in their view. Their
only strength in the developing equation is that there is more than
one power centre in Ankara and they are not in sync with one another
on how to resolve the issue.

Thus, the constantly pumped messages to Armenian President Sarksyan
and Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian: "Do not trust the Turks,
or you will be severely deceived by them."

Hawks hope that talks will lead to a cul-de-sac, maintaining the
status quo, and the Obama Enhanced Coverage LinkingObama -Search using:
Biographies Plus News News, Most Recent 60 Days administration will be,
not seeing any progress at all in soccer diplomacy, encouraged to move
ahead to the "genocide recognition" phase. It overlaps totally with the
Turkish hawks’ desire, since their aim is to further diminish sympathy
for the US in Turkey and seek opportunities of a semi-authoritarian
rule closer to Russia.

The pace and resolve, therefore, are even more important than
before. Neither Turkey nor Armenia, despite relatively weak and
hesitant leadership on both sides, should let the momentum melt into
nothing. The US, too, has enormous interest in the rapprochement. For
Russia, it might be argued, that ending with or without concrete
results would not matter much, but Moscow is keen on the establishment
of diplomatic relations and opening of the border for its own
reasons. It adds to the uniqueness of the momentum.

The hawks, seeing that they will lose if Turks and Armenians succeed in
talking calmly and developing a dialogue, will increase the pressure
on Yerevan and Washington. If the Turkish side also gives in to the
delaying tactics and paying too much attention to hawks acting on
behalf of Azerbaijani hawks, the chances will be doomed to diminish.

It is of utmost importance, therefore, that talks do produce concrete
steps before April 24. Once the channels are opened and windows let
light in, the two sides will have come closer to dealing with the
pain in their history.