EUROPEAN UNION SHIFTING RUSSIA INTO ASIA
by Andrei Terekhov

WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
December 5, 2008 Friday
Russia

HIGHLIGHT: EU EASTERN PARTNERSHIP BLOCKS RUSSIA’S PLANS IN THE FORMER
SOVIET UNION; The European Commission is releasing an important
strategic document on the European Union’s eastern policy. It proposes
to triple EU aid to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova,
and Ukraine. Brussels will hold a summit with these countries next
year – and Russia is not invited.

On December 3, the European Commission is to release an important
strategic document on the European Union’s eastern policy. It proposes
to triple EU aid to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova,
and Ukraine. Brussels will hold a summit with these countries next
year – and Russia is not invited.

The EC Eastern Partnership proposal – a document approved by all 27
member states – argues that EU aid to former Soviet countries should be
tripled. By 2020, the EU should provide 1.5 billion euros to Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. These countries
may accelerate their rapprochement with the EU as soon as next year.

The Eastern Partnership is a relatively new initiative. It originated
with Poland and Sweden, and gained momentum after the Trans-Caucasus
conflict in August. Another factor is the Czech Republic’s impending
turn at the EU’s rotating presidency: six months starting January
1, 2009, followed by Sweden as of July 1. Moscow’s relations with
these countries have been problematic. Irena Busic, press secretary
to Swedish Foreign Minister Karl Bildt, explains the initiative as
follows: "Sweden and Poland have proposed a stronger EU policy on
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine. Full participation
by Belarus would be possible only when conditions permit." According
to Busic, establishing the Eastern Partnership would make it possible
to deepen bilateral cooperation between the EU and the countries in
question, in areas such as migration and free trade; it would also
faciliate domestic reforms in those countries.

It is suggested that if these countries "make sustained reform
efforts," the EU would offer them "deeper integration."

The EC proposal makes no mention of EU membership prospects for the
six former Soviet states. Even without that, however, implementing
this plan carries the risk of raising tension in Russia-EU
relations. Alexander Rahr, Russia and CIS programs director at the
Council on Foreign Relations (Germany), told us that the EC document is
"the most significant agenda yet developed by the EU regarding policy
in the East." Germany and France, which have tried to take the lead
in the EU’s eastward activities until now, were primarily focused
on cooperation with Russia. Rahr says: "But now we are moving into
a phase where Russia will be isolated and put under pressure. The
Russian-Georgian war gave the EU a serious scare. And it’s not only
Mikheil Saakashvili who is being blamed for that conflict. Moscow’s
recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia
is regarded as their annexation by Russia. The EU will now aim to
reinforce its interests zone in the former Soviet Union." Rahr notes
that the EU intends to include Belarus and Azerbaijan in its interests
zone. In other words, this plan is mostly aimed at containing Russia,
rather than just developing closer relations with democratic states.

Observers suggest that Moscow is unlikely to look on calmly as the
EU starts actively developing democratic institutions in the former
Soviet Union. Rahr says: "The plan will allocate a quarter of a billion
euros for building civil society and democratic institutions in these
six states. The document also mentions creating a free trade area with
these countries – not with Russia. Thus, it completely wrecks Russia’s
idea of a common trade area within the former Soviet Union. After all,
Belarus would be drawn out of its Union State with Russia." Rahr
maintains that visa-free travel would be gradually established
between Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine and
the EU; meanwhile, the prospects of Russia-EU visa-free travel would
become more remote. This would create the danger of a new "curtain"
between other post-Soviet states and Russia. "This is a very alarming
document for Russia, showing that the EU is seriously concerned about
the Russian Federation’s ‘neo-imperialist’ policies," says Rahr.

The EC document does not criticize Russia directly, but it clearly
emphasizes weakening Moscow’s influence in the former Soviet
Union. Brussels intends to encourage the project aimed at transporting
Caspian energy resources via the Nabucco pipeline; it supports the
idea of establishing a new transit corridor, bypassing Russia, with
the aim of diversifying hydrocarbon supplies. But the document does
not mention any intention to abandon EU participation in the major
project for transporting Russian natural gas to Germany across the
Baltic Sea floor (Nord Stream).
From: Baghdasarian