NAGORNO-KARABAKH – UNTIED TIES
Armen Ashotyan

"Noravank" Foundation
08 December 2008

Introduction: While speaking about "frozen conflicts" the international
analytical community, basing on various political and global interests,
often takes under a common umbrella the processes relating to the
international status of not recognized states of Post-Soviet territory.

However, the new factual classification of those conflicts has been
clearly outlined recently, according to which now they are observed
due to supremacy of the Russian component – Abkhazia, Predniester,
South Ossetia, and without supremacy of the Russian component –
Nagorno-Karabakh, problems.

Such a distinction is resulted by a number of factors, including
maximal independent position of the Armenian parties and characteristic
geopolitical peculiarities of the NKR conflict.

Independent of international diplomatic developments progressing around
the NKR, it is to be stated as a fact that the whole international
activity is directed not so much at the NKR conflict settlement as
at the issue of giving the already settled conflict international
status and recognition. To make this provision clearer we may state
as a fact that:

Civilization centers have once and for all realized inexpediency of
all the possible projects of returning the NKR to Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s political elite has to put up with the idea of losing
the NKR, and all the martial and pathetic declarations are dictated
by internal political motivations and "phantom pains" connected with
the lose of the NKR.

Armenia agrees to leave the perspective of joining the NKR to the RA
for the future.

The NKR will join Armenia as an independent ethno-territorial,
ethno-political entity.

As for characteristic peculiarities of the NKR issue, I’d like to
analyze it on a few plains.

Legal: Although it has long been known that the norms of the
international right in up-to-date world predominantly work only for
or in case of protecting corresponding interests (I’ll later return
to these interests in the context of the NKR), nevertheless, it is
important to accurately formulate legal grounds/arguments of the
Armenian party, such as:

Formation of the NKR in the legislation of the USSR.

Proclamation of the Republic of Azerbaijan ("Proclamation of
reestablishing the Republic of Azerbaijan’s state independence")
as a successor of PRA, accordingly, without the territory of the NKR.

Taking into consideration the fact that the local analysts often turn
to the above mentioned legal norms, let me not to get in details).

The NKR conflict has been settled as realization of the rights
of nations for self-determination confirmed in the 8th principle
of the Helsinki Final Act, and, before that, in the UN "Universal
Declaration of Human Right s" and "International Convention on Civil
and Political rights."

I’d also like to repeat the thesis that there are no contradictions
with the principle of territorial integrity, as the first one
refers to intergovernmental relations, and the second one (right for
self-determination) applies to the nation living in the framework of
the very state.

And finally, even if we imagine for a minute that as a result of work
carried out by the Azerbaijani propagandistic machine Armenia will
be considered as a state encroaching upon territorial integrity of
the neighbor country, than in "Universal Declaration of Human Right"
(October 24, 1970) it is asserted that the principle of territorial
integrity is not applied to the countries which don’t ensure equality
of the nations living there and their right for self-determination. In
the very declaration it is mentioned that to carry out that rights
it is necessary creation of an independent state, unification with
another state or acquisition of another political status.

Geostrategy: Global political and economic characteristics traits of
the South Caucasus are:

Transit (energy carriers, railway and motor roads) Their own energy
carriers (Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea) Control (Central
Asia, the Near East) Up-to-date functional roles of Nagorno-Karabakh
in global politics are the following:

Possible fulcrum against the Islamic Republic of Iran thanks to the
0D common land boundary.

Impediment to build a Pan-Turkic bridge: Potential threat
against security and uninterrupted functioning of regional energy
communications: A lever of effective influence on the Republic of
Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan: NKR is not only the "own"
problem of NKR, RA, RF, it is also the problem of international
political elite.

The NKR issue is "autonomous" but it is not "independent," it is
interconnected with other geopolitical and geo-economic conflicts.

Political: International political process around the NKR is paving
its way through the political pyramid consisting of corresponding
interested subjects on top of which is the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic,
in the basis – RF, USA and EU, and in the middle layer – RA-AR and
Turkey -Iran couples accordingly.

NKR.RF – AR.Turkey – Iran.Russia – USA-EU As one can notice,
the political process which began as a result of realizing the
NKR nation’s self-determination, spreads from its epicenter (NKR)
embracing a wider interested circle – RF, EU. US.

Turning this conditional pyramid upside-down we can figuratively
represent which interests in the process of international recognition
of the NKR status are compressed on top of the system – in the NKR
(from top to bottom).

Armenian axioms: International political process progressing around
the NKR, nevertheless, is to be placed in the20framework of axioms
laid down by the Armenian party.

Axiom of confirming the realization of the NKR nation’s right for
self-determination.

Axiom of common land boundary between the NKR and the RA.

Axiom of international guarantee of the NKR’s independence.

On regional public welfares. As we could see, realization of the
NKR nation’s right for self-determination as well as the process
of giving international legitimacy to it faces the necessity of
harmonizing approaches of many actors which have regional interests
often contradicting each other.

However stubborn synthesis of minimal acceptable interests of the
Earth’s geopolitical actors seems to be, I dare to suggest a universal
synthetic agenda of policy in South-Caucasian region potentially
acceptable for them (not only connected with the NKR) and call it a
Regional public welfares:

regional stability, regional security, economic development, regional
economic integration, a common market, civil liberties, political
right, conservancy, struggle against terrorism and radicalism.

Karabakh conflict settlement – art of what is possible The NKR
international process aims at preserving its present situation –
"All the ways lead to status quo." There are several prerequisites
for such a situation.

Necessity for "peaceful coexistence" of the NKR and Baku-Tbilis-Ceyhan
oil carrier.

Absence of new regional mega-projects.

Secondarity of the NK R as a base in case of possible operations
against Iran.

In the foreseeable perspective unreality of final victory "geopolitical
overstretching of South-Caucasian rope."

Circumstance of being interconnection with neighbor regions.