ARMS TRADE SCANDAL IN RELATION TO POLITICS
Andrei Nikolski (Ukraine)
en.fondsk.ru
12.12.2008
On 2 September, when President Viktor Yuschenko said Moscow was going
to carry out a coup in Ukraine dubbed as "Georgia-2", Verkhovna Rada
established the Interim Investigation Commission on illegal deliveries
of arms and military equipment from Ukraine to Georgia under control
of the Party of Regions (PR) MP Valeriy Konovalyuk. From the very
start Mr.
Yushchenko and his allies resisted the investigation. Any attempts
to make the information on the investigation public are nipped in
the bud as biased and aimed at "disclosing state secrecy".
The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) accused Mr. Konovalyuk personally
of disclosing state secrecy and applied pressure on mass media for
attempts to publish at least some pieces of documents or an interview
with Konovalyuk.
The SSU officials had even abducted one of the correspondents for
DailyUA online paper and seized its content. The abducted journalist
Nazar Tsapka was interrogated by a group of people including the
SSU Spokeswoman Marina Ostapenko. Ukraine’s journalistic circles
were annoyed at the fact that she actively intimidated the abducted
journalist. Supported by the PR MP A. German, Nazar Tsapka was freed.
However, the SSU officials hardly even expected to learn some exclusive
information from the abducted journalist. Their aim was to t hreaten
him: "Do not interfere if you value your health". This was not the
first time when "oranges" used the national law-enforcement agencies to
apply pressure on mass media. In July 2008 S. Leshchenko, a journalist
for "The Ukrainian Truth", spent more than 13 hours at the Prosecutor`s
Office being interrogated over his interview with a MP David Zhvania,
in which the two discussed Yushchenko`s alleged poisoning.
I would like to focus on a political aspect of the situation
without going into details of the investigation launched by the
Commission. There are several political meanings here worth to be
outlined.
1. "To Compel Yushchenko to Peace" This appears to be the top
priority. Probably, the PR was establishing the Commission to threaten
to impeach President Yushchenko. And they could harldy even imagined to
find evidence of corruption and numerous violation of the legislation
by the "orange" authorities. Although the Presidential Secretariat
claims that arms trade remains in the custody of a prime minister,
"Ukrspezexport" company, which is ruled by a person appointed by
the President, remains the major arms exporter. So we see that
Viktor Yushchenko has long been involved in illegal activity,
and this fact may hardly help him in his election campaign. Under
such circumstances, the work of the Commission becomes a subject
to political bargaining. The key=2 0problem here is to form a
broad coalition, the PR had long been dreaming about. Initially,
the investigation was launched to nudge Yushchenko to form a new
coalition and place any PR MP and the head of the new Cabinet of
Ministers or the Verkhovna Rada spokesman. Otherwise the President
would have faced impeachment, with the laws adopted in September
making the whole procedure well-arranged. But the refusal of the
"Julia Tymoshenko Bloc" (JTB) faction to vote for the proposed draft
laws in the second reading weakened the Commission’s strategy.
Actually, the establishment of the Commission is really a strong
argument the PR could use to compel Yushchenko to negotiate the
creation of a broad coalition. But now it may be not only a strong
argument but a burden for those who initiated al this. It is obvious
that if the PR and "The Out Ukraine-People`s Self-Defene Bloc" (and
maybe Litvin`s Bloc) form the new coalition, the Commission will be
abolished, thus puzzling the electorate waiting for the results of
the investigation and evoking serious concerns in Moscow since the
August war conflict in the Caucasus is not just a "skirmish" but a
key issue of Russia`s foreign policy.
If the PR fails to continue the investigation and abolishes
Konovalyuk`s Commission, Moscow will see the move as an attempt
to hide the truth about Yushchenko`s role in supporting Georgia`s
armed aggres sion. The PR has should have enough political stamina
to finish the investigation and report on the results (as they do it
in a civilized world).
Since the end of the investigation will automatically mean serious
electoral losses, early elections or the JTB`s membership in the new
coalition (as the faction may use the results of the investigation
for their purposes) appear to be the most likely plots. However, early
elections may be used as a pretest to abolish the Commission: if there
is not parliament, there is nobody to continue the investigation. So,
everything depends on the PR`s official position. Judging by the
recent announcements made by the PR and the JTB, the two factions
opted for the second plot. In January, when the people of Ukraine
will be seriously affected by economic crisis, they won`t pay any
attention to the coalition members.
2. International reaction If the Commission headed by Konovalyuk
provides irrefutable evidence that Yushchenko`s Ukraine sold arms to
Georgia, the incumbent president may no longer hope for support from
the overseas during his election campaigns.
Recently the Western leaders have been seriously revising their view
on the five-day war, and Mikhail Saakashvili admitted that Tbilisi had
initiated the military campaign against its breakaway regions. Europe
is not just disappointed; it is annoyed at Saakashvili, who stirred
up tensions between EU and Russia, while Germany and France w ere
trying to improve cooperation with Moscow. Taking into consideration
that the current political regime in Ukraine originated in the West,
for the Yushchenko`s team it would be a catastrophe to be accused of
illegal arms trade with Georgia.
Europe is sensitive about those bits and pieces of the international
law left after George W. Bush`s 8 years of rule and his military
campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq, prisons in Guantanamo, etc. And
since Ukraine’s support to Georgia in its aggression against South
Ossetia is becoming more apparent with days, it was one of the main
reasons for turning down Ukraine`s NATO bid.
3. US money stealing The Moscow-based "Izvestiya" newspaper reported
(citing the documents obtained by the Commission) what arms and
at what price Ukraine had been delivering to Georgia. So, Ukraine
delivered to Georgia two 5th class "Maxim" machine guns ($200 each);
two 1928 Thompson machine guns; two Shpagin`s pistol-machine guns;
two MG-34 German machine guns (WW II type); two Degtyarev hand-held
machine guns; 1140 Nagant pistols; 695 Mosin 1891 Nagants. All other
equipment (including modern guns) was also undervalued.
Yushchenko and Saakashvili seemed to thrive on the money of the US
tax payers and as ordinary store keepers used a traditional scheme of
setbacks, price mark-downs and speculation. The Americans can forgive
many things (for example, crimes against humanity) but not a20financial
betrayal. When the Commission provides enough evidence, Yushchenko
will face serious problems in relations with his US partners, who
had appointed him as their "puppet" in Ukraine.
Conclusions: 1. The preliminary results of the investigation indicate
that the investigation is very likely to be a success despite being
strongly opposed by the president.
2. If the Commission is abolished, the PR will face serious electoral
losses and will be criticized by the JTB and opposition political
factions) for inconsistent policies.
3. Russia will not welcome the abolishment of the Commission and will
doubt the PR`s aspirations to improve Russia-Ukraine ties.
4. The Yushchenko`s team will make every effort (including illegal
means) not to let the Commission continue their investigation.
5. If the investigation proves Ukraine`s authorities are guilty of
crimes, a new precedent may occur when despite all the evidence the
trial process would be impossible to begin.
6. After Yushchenko loses the 2009 election, he and his allies won`t
be necessarily tried in court. Viktor Yushchenko and his family will
probably leave Ukraine at any plausible excuse.