ILHAM ALIYEV IS RENEWING HIS TEAM
by Kamran Abbasbayli

Yeni Musavat
Dec 8 2008
Azerbaijan

In-depth reforms in the pipeline

"From March next year we shall witness the beginning of fundamental
public and political changes in the country. Preparations are now
under way to this end and the overall outlines of reforms are also
known. The issue in question is about matters that will have more or
less impact on all spheres of the country. The gist of the changes
is to succeed in complex rejuvenation [of the team]. The author of
the idea is directly President Ilham Aliyev. His plan can also be
described as a programme for `power change without a revolution’".

"Our newspaper received this report from a reliable source connected
with the ruling team. According to the source, esteemed Ilham Aliyev’s
reforms plan envisages activities in two directions:

1. To normalize public and political situation in the country as well
as the relations with the opposition.

2. To conduct cardinal personnel reforms and rejuvenate the ruling
team: "The issue in question is to remove several old officials or
send them into retirement or demote and start the new stage with
a new team and faces. In parallel with these, it is considered to
hasten the resolution of some domestic problems which are a source
of eternal problems."

We should say that Yeni Musavat newspaper has covered aspects of the
first part of this plan in detail. As we reported in our previous
issues, the government has taken a line of softening the domestic
situation and its desire to normalize relations with the opposition
does not remain as a mere intention or a plan.

As we already know both the latest developments around the Karabakh
issue and the lack of comprehensive understanding with the West
over democracy, human rights, freedom of speech and the undesirable
situation stipulated by the political crisis [as published] in the
country, the intention to extend the tenure of the president and
similar issues make the ruling team to cooperate with the opposition.

We also noted that practical steps to this end have been made and
confidential contacts between influential people in the authorities
and plenipotentiary representatives of the leading opposition parties
have started.

Wide-ranging package aims to get opposition backing

To put it differently, amongst issues discussed were the following:
the transition of the relations between the authorities and the
opposition to a civil channel; guaranteeing the democratic conduct
of the municipal and parliamentary elections; increasing powers
of the Cabinet of Ministers; reviewing the issue of forming the
composition of the CEC [the Central Electoral Commission] and the
electoral commissions on an equal basis; the restoration of the
proportional election system; increasing the number of the seats
in the Milli Maclis from125 to 175; taking heed of the opposition’s
proposals with regard to financing parties from the budget; allocating
seats to the opposition representatives in the clemency commissions,
at departments to fight corruption and the Security Council (without
remuneration); ending pressure on the opposition, the restoration of
the rights of the oppressed opposition representatives whose rights
have been undermined and are still in prisons;

We want to once again note that the likelihood of fundamental changes
in the Karabakh issue in months to come put the ruling team into
motion.

Amongst factors that have drawn the authorities into observing the
abovesaid conditions, i.e. to a choice of a moderate course, are to
gain the opposition’s support in the Karabakh issue and obtain the
opportunity of acting in a convincing manner in dealing with the
West and Russia as well as the intention of realizing the expected
constitutional reforms, to be precise, to approach easily to the
project of extending the presidential tenure. We have also covered
this topic.

What is obvious is that the authorities are really serious in their
plans and sent out the first message. The issue in question is about
Mr Aliyev’s humane decision with regard to two imprisoned brothers –
editor-in-chief of Azadliq newspaper, Qanimat Zahid, and satirist of
the paper, Mirza Sakit.

By permitting the political prisoners the brothers to attend the
funeral of their father (plus this issue was decided without a delay),
the president demonstrated his readiness to soften his approaches to
the matters. Actually, this meant "I am ready for changes".

This gesture was a big push towards the process of softening. The
process will inevitably get an irreversible nature. It is hard to
guess and imagine the other way round. Moreover, another option would
simply be illogical.

Aliyev keen to promote his democratic image

Especially, in this context, Mr Aliyev is said interested in promoting
his democratic image and establishment of a civil climate based on
mutual respect and confidence inside the country: "I would also like
that a democratic system be established in my country, we shall achieve
this, I am simply anxious about the speed of democratization." These
words also belong to Mr Aliyev. He has expressed this opinion more
than once at meetings with high-ranking foreigners.

Our source claims that Ilham Aliyev was ready for democratic reforms
and recognition of the opportunity of ruling over the country with
the opposition through parliament early in 2005: "At that time,
the opposition refused from negotiations and agreement negotiated by
international mediators.

One of the mediators was the official of the PACE [Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe], Andreas Gross. The talk was about
representation of the Freedom bloc [made up of People’s Front of
Azerbaijan Party, the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan and the Musavat
Party] in parliament with 25-30 seats and election of the opposition
representative to one of the deputy speaker post. However, the Freedom
bloc was very ambitious and a revolutionary mood was in place in the
country at that time.

However, later one of the founders of the bloc, Rasul Quliyev, fell
victim to a plot of one of the foreign intelligence services. As a
result, without knowledge of other leaders of the Freedom bloc, a team
of "revolutionaries" was set up with involvement of some officials
in the authorities, including the president’s uncle, Calal Aliyev.

They plotted to stage a coup, overthrow Ilham Aliyev and bring Rasul
Quliyev to power. As is known, this plan was exposed in October 2005
and Ilham Aliyev abandoned the course of democratic reforms to retain
his power by all possible means…"

March to be rich with political changes

Our source claims that the situation has changed now: "There remains
not a single force able to block reforms in the ruling family, in the
authorities and in the opposition camp either. Now the president will
stage a revolution!"

As for the second part of the plan, i.e., the personnel issues,
we obtained very interesting report from our source. In his view,
Ilham Aliyev considers this team to be his deceased father Heydar
Aliyev’s rather than his own.

He also knows it is impossible to go to a new period and get the
country out of fateful problems with old team members: "For this
reason, it is planned to introduce fundamental political reforms and
personnel changes after Novruz Holiday. Major figures will be removed
from their posts and their removal would mean the departure of the
current authorities. Relatively young people, "city [Baku] born guys"
and those who were educated in a different civilization are planned
to be the substitutes.

These changes are steps calculated to further targets; If Ilham
Aliyev’s presidential term is not extended and someone goes to the
election in 2013, the would-be team should also be ready for that
situation.

It would also be a message to the people and the opposition that
Western representatives also noted more than one the need for new
faces far away from enmity and those who have not shed blood or killed
anyone. Ilham Aliyev also has long ago accepted the need for purging
his authorities from Mafiosi forces…"

According to reports we obtained, the personnel changes will cover
major figures in the first stage. Bureaucrats and ministers in major
posts for a long time are targeted to be replaced. It is reported
that although Ilham Aliyev is happy about his economic advisers,
changes are also not ruled out in this team. The major reforms wave
will hit power-wielding sectors and the political group, the point
here is to fundamentally change the team. Ministers to be removed are
expected to be named ambassadors, presidential aides and be appointed
to similar low-ranking posts.

Nevertheless, it is also speculated that there will be people who
will be dismissed from one high-ranking post and appointed to other
"weighty" posts. Under these reports, the prime minister and all
in all, the Cabinet of Ministers would be changed: "People wanted
revolution and will get it. The opposition was demanding that the
authorities go and the authorities will go. The West was demanding
reforms and democracy and will get more than that…"

These all are from a source whose reliability and credential leave
no place for doubts. He advised that all the political forces are to
be ready for a revolution from above after the Novruz holiday…