TURKEY, ARMENIA AND PRESIDENT-ELECT OBAMA WHAT NEXT?
Turkish Daily News
December 15, 2008 Monday
Bad timing in foreign policy decisions can make even the most
attractive initiatives look hollow. This is indeed the case with the
current chorus of calls for conciliatory steps and gestures towards
Armenia. These calls have become more vocal in the wake of Obamas
election as U.S. President. The pundits defending this position argue
that Turkey should take the initiative in order to dissuade the new
American President from supporting Armenian genocide claims and do all
it can especially before the critical date of April 24. The emphasis
is on timing and on the need to act now. Unfortunately, however,
this chorus of well-intentioned appeals is ill timed and as a result,
misplaced as well.
President-elect Obama, Vice President-elect Biden, the designated
Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and the leadership in both wings
of the Congress have all in the past identified with the Armenian
thesis. During the election campaign, Obama made explicit promises to
the Armenian lobby in writing to recognize the claimed genocide. They
and many others on Capitol Hill actually believe the Armenian version
of events. There is therefore a greater risk (this time) than ever
that both the White House and the Congress might this time accept
the Armenian narrative, accusing the Turkish side of genocide.
At the same time, the Armenian lobby will surely exert its maximum
effort to seize this opportune moment in American history. The
distribution of the political cards seems to favor their chances of
realizing their long cherished goal of imposing their claims on the
U.S. Government. The Armenian community is first to press for the "g"
word in the traditional April 24 declaration by the U.S. President
and than to take their case to the Congress. Knowing that the stakes
are uniquely high this time, the Armenians will try to obtain the
widest possible assurance for the acceptance of their views before
making their moves. In other words, Turkey, the Turkish-American
community and American friends of Turkey are going to face their
toughest challenge yet in the upcoming Obama Presidency.
In the light of this political backdrop in the United States,
it is probably not wise for the Turkish Government to make any new
gestures toward Armenia before April 24. First, the aim of any Turkish
move would be too obvious and look like a political bribe. Second,
it may add fuel to the Armenian claim that pressure on the Turks
works. Third, it may not have the desired effect on the White
House and/or the Congress after all. Finally, rather than focusing
on the United States, any steps taken by the Turkish side in this
connection should be part of a broader strategy to engage Armenia
and the Armenians in a full-fledged dialogue with Turkey to resolve
all the outstanding issues between them.