FREDERICK STARR: "IT IS OBVIOUS THAT RUSSIA ATTEMPTS TO REPLACE THE MINSK PROCESS WITH THE MOSCOW PROCESS"

Today.Az
olitics/49731.html
Dec 22 2008
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with Frederick Starr, head of the Institute of
Central Asia and Caucasus of John Hopkins University.

– What is the reason of the intensification of Russia’s role in the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict, which led to signing of the
Moscow declaration?

– It is quite obvious that despite official statements, Moscow tries to
replace the Minsk process with the Moscow process. But such a conduct
remained in the past and I think that Russia has more urgent problems
on which it should focus its attention.

– How serious can changes in the relations between Russia and the
United States be following the events in Georgia?

– Most expect profound changes in the relations between Moscow and
the United States. I consider these expectations to be mistaken. The
relations will develop in the evolutionary manner. No doubts that the
United States have ground to support good relations with Moscow. It
will not be conducted to damage the interests of our friends in the
Caucasus. I think ignoring these interests in relations with Moscow
would become the worst mistake for Washington. This is what Europeans
do, who use the Caucasus states as a trading object in the relations
with Moscow. I hope that in the future the United States will still
treat Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia as legal objects not as a token
money in the geopolitical game.

– Can the differences between Russia and the United States, as the
OSCE MG states, influence on the Karabakh resolution?

– I was initially confident about the ineffectiveness of the Minsk
process, as Russia on many aspects was the conflict participant and
now it offers mediation services. I do not know which progress it will
lead to, but it is clear to me that the Minsk Group has previously
failed. All parties are aware that it will lead to nothing. Certainly,
Russia has an opportunity to settle the Karabakh problem, but if it
illegally supplies Armenia with arms for $1 bln it creates problems.

Moscow is interested in preservation of the quo status. Russia must
realize that the careless policy towards neighbors and the world
community will lead to nothing and it must behave as a responsible
modern force. Other imprtant members of the world community do not
intend to build a Great Chinese Wall between the Russian actions in
the Caucasus and their readiness to cooperate with Russia.

But until Russia changes its policy in the Caucasus, there will be
suspicion and distrust in the relations with this country. I imply
not only the United States and Europe, but also China, which is also
resented over Russia’s behavior in Georgia. Moreover, all the Central
Asian States are quite strong to show their resentment which will be
possible under Beijing’s support.

– What do you think about Ankara’s actions in the resolution of
problems in the Caucasus and its Initiative of the Caucasus Stability
and Security Platform?

– I took a particular interest in Turkey’s initiative in this
direction. At the same time, I am anxious that Ankara may have the
intention of settling the "Armenian genocide" issue at the cost of
Karabakh. I sincerely believe that I am mistaken. I hope Turkey will
soon make a clear statement on this issue. Otherwise, there may appear
grounds for concern.