AZERBAIJAN: SKEPTICISM ON A POTENTIAL KARABAKH SETTLEMENT IN 2009
Shahin Abbasov
EurasiaNet
Dec 25 2008
NY
The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – the organization that is
overseeing the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process – seem increasingly
optimistic about the chances for a settlement in 2009. But experts
in Baku remain cautious that the long-running dilemmas that have held
up a settlement can finally be solved in the coming year.
While political experts in Baku believe that there is long way to
go to reach comprehensive resolution, they emphasize two important
results of the end of 2008: Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia caused Western powers to understand that it is dangerous to
keep the Karabakh conflict frozen. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive]. In addition, Azerbaijani officials have come to
understand that attempting a military solution to the conflict could
create more problems than it solves.
Meetings on December 4 involving the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign
ministers, along with representatives of the Minsk Group, resulted in
a declaration in which all sides pledged to work for a comprehensive
agreement on outstanding issues within the next few months. "We call
for intensification of efforts to complete the process of harmonization
of basic principles of resolution in the upcoming few months and then
to start work over the draft of comprehensive peace agreement between
Azerbaijan and Armenia," the document reads.
The co-chairs countries also called Baku and Yerevan to work with
each other for stabilization of a ceasefire regime on the frontline
and other measures to strengthen mutual confidence.
Matthew Bryza, the US co-chair in the Minsk Group called the
declaration "an important document," but added that it would not be
accurate to call it a "crucial point."
"The process is going in the right direction and we all see progress,"
Bryza was quoted as saying by the Turan news agency in Helsinki on
December 4. "However, there are still serious disagreements."
Armenian and Azerbaijani officials are still engaging in mutual
recrimination. For example, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in an
interview broadcast by the Italian RAI channel said that he would not
rule out the use of force as a means to solve the conflict. Armenian
Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, in turn, criticized Aliyev for
not disavowing a military option. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov later insisted that the framework under discussion
specifies that a settlement will be rooted in the principle of
preserving Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. [For background see
the Eurasia Insight archive].
Details of the negotiating framework remain sketchy. But the talks are
widely believed to be revolving around a deal in which Azerbaijan’s
occupied territories are returned in exchange for a deferred referendum
on the future political status of Nagorno-Karabakh. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Despite the ongoing maneuvering, Minsk Group representatives are
optimistic that a settlement can be found. Bryza said on December 9
that contacts between President Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart,
Serzh Sargsyan, are better far better than they had been with
Sargsyan’s predecessor, Robert Kocharian. "It is obvious," he said.
Bernard Fassier, the French co-chair of the Minsk Group also said to
EurasiaNet in Paris on December 6 that there is mutual trust between
Aliyev and Sargsyan. Fassier said that foreign ministers of the United
States, Russia and France have offered an approximate schedule for the
completion of work on basic principles, with the aim of wrapping up
that stage by mid-2009. "Then the work over a draft of a comprehensive
peace agreement could begin," the French diplomat said.
However, political analysts in Baku express doubts that a peace treaty
can be finalized in 2009. Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Atlas research
center, a Baku-based think tank explains that both Azerbaijan and
Armenia may lack the political will to make necessary compromises. "The
sides are even differently interpreting the ‘Madrid principles’
that shows that we are still far from any comprehensive resolution,"
Shahingolu said in a December 21 interview. [For background see the
Eurasia Insight archive].
Another expert, Rauf Mirkadirov, a political columnist of the
Baku-based Zerkalo daily, is also cautious about a breakthrough in
2009. "The remaining issues – Nagorno-Karabakh’s status and a land
corridor between Armenia and Karabakh – will hardly be easy to solve
in the near future," Mirkadirov said.
Editor’s Note: Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent
based in Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society
Institute-Azerbaijan.