ISRAEL’S GAZA OFFENSIVE PRESENTS ANKARA WITH DIPLOMATIC CHALLENGE

EurasiaNet
Jan 8 2009
NY

Israel’s attack in Gaza is proving to be both a test and an opportunity
for Turkey’s continuing efforts to establish itself as a regional
mediator in the Middle East, observers say.

Ankara, for the last few years, has actively sought to establish itself
as a kind of regional (soft) power broker, working to strengthen
relations with neighbors that it has previously kept at an arm’s
length, and even bringing Israel and Syria together for a round of
secret meetings in Istanbul.

Turkey has been conducting its own shuttle diplomacy in the Middle
East, with the country’s prime minister recently visiting Syria,
Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia in an effort to bring about a ceasefire
between Israel and Hamas. But harsh government criticism of Israel,
along with rising popular anger to Israel’s actions inside Turkey,
could compromise Ankara’s ability to play the role of honest broker,
experts say.

"We think that Turkey is a country that has a role in the Middle
East. Turkey has contacts to all the countries in the region. They are
on speaking terms with everybody. The potential is there for Turkey
to help facilitate a solution in the Middle East," says a Western
diplomat based in Ankara.

But, adds the diplomat: "During this crisis, Turkey might have a
bigger impact if they had a slightly more balanced position, and if
the prime minister’s criticism of Israel had not been so harsh."

Indeed, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s criticism of
Israel has been significantly stronger than even that of many Arab
leaders. As the Turkish newspaper Vatan noted dryly on its front
page, the only other leaders in the Middle East to use language
like Erdogan’s have been regional firebrands Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and
Muammar Khadaffi.

Speaking at a recent municipal election campaign rally, for example,
Erdogan said Israel was "perpetrating inhuman actions which would
bring it to self-destruction. Allah will sooner or later punish those
who transgress the rights of innocents."

Erdogan also has characterized Israel’s actions as a "crime against
humanity," and has publicly stated that he is refusing to take phone
calls from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert until Israel stops its
Gaza attack.

Some critics are wondering whether Erdogan’s statements have undercut
Turkey’s ability to deliver on what it insists is the added value
it brings to the Middle Eastern table — its ability to serve as a
conduit to Israel. "The reactions by the prime minister at the start
of the operation have weakened a very important trump card in his
hand," political analyst Cengiz Candar said on NTV, a Turkish news
network. "The war in Gaza has . . . battered the country’s political
influence."

In Israel, some of Erdogan’s statements have been greeted with
dismay. "There is a lot of anger in Israel over what Erdogan said,"
says Ephraim Inbar, Director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic
Studies at Israel’s Bar Ilan University. "Turkey needs to understand
that this is like the talks with Syria. For Israel, Hamas is a red
flag; it’s seen as a terrorist organization that wants to destroy it."

"I think Turkey has exaggerated this time around," Inbar adds.

Still, experts say that mutual interests — particularly on
regional security issues — will keep Turkish-Israeli relations from
rupturing. The two countries, for example, signed a $141 million deal
on the eve of the Gaza attack that calls for Israel to provide the
Turkish air force with airborne space imagery intelligence systems
over the next four years.

"Long term I don’t see much impact. Both nations need each other,"
says Lale Sariibrahimoglu, a military analyst based in Ankara.

"There might be a kind of a cold atmosphere between the two countries
for perhaps weeks to come, but I don’t anticipate any further action
by Turkey in terms of reducing relations, particularly in terms of
diplomatic ties," said Sami Kohen, a columnist with the daily Milliyet
and a veteran observer of Turkish foreign policy.

Despite his own impassioned rhetoric, Erdogan has rejected calls
by members of the Turkish parliament to suspend Turkey’s ties with
Israel. "I would like to remind those who call for Turkey to freeze
ties with Israel that we administer the republic of Turkey, not a
grocery market," Erdogan recently told parliament.

Erdogan’s reaction is based on a real anger that his efforts of
the last few years to bridge the divides in the Middle East —
particularly between Israel and Syria — may have gone up in smoke
because of Israel’s actions, but there is also a domestic component
to his response, analysts say.

The public reaction in Turkey to what is happening in Gaza has
been visibly angry, with large daily protests taking place all over
Turkey. Even a basketball game between a Turkish and Israeli team in
Ankara had to be called off after shouting protestors stormed the
court. "This is the first time that the public reaction has been
so widespread. It’s very intensive this time. There haven’t been
such widespread and spontaneous anti-Israel sentiments before,"
says Milliyet’s Kohen. "It’s not just the Islamic circles. It’s
also the secularists and the nationalists. The protests have been
representative of the whole of Turkish society. I don’t remember
seeing such a public reaction on any other issue before."

With Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) facing local
elections this March, the government’s relations with Israel could
be a liability. Already, placards have been appearing at protests
showing Erdogan and Olmert shaking hands and accusing the AKP of
"collaborating" with Israel.

Erdogan may also find himself walking a tightrope when it comes
to distancing Turkey from Israel. Ankara has long depended on
Israel to act as a conduit to the Washington and to American Jewish
organizations, who have frequently acted as a kind of surrogate lobby
for Turkey in Washington. In the past, Jewish organizations have been
instrumental in helping Turkey block efforts to introduce resolutions
in Congress recognizing the Armenian genocide of 1915.

"There is real anger with Erdogan on Capital Hill and among people
who follow Turkey in Washington," says a Washington-based consultant
who closely monitors Turkish affairs. "Nobody is threatening anything
right now, or knows if there are going to be repercussions, but this
is going to have an effect."

Adds the consultant: "There is a sense that Erdogan’s used up a lot
of good will."

Editor’s Note: Yigal Schleifer is a freelance journalist based in
Istanbul.