Ekspress, Azerbaijan
Jan 12 2009

We have nothing to say to Moscow

Experts: The Kremlin can arm its outpost but official Baku has also to
express its position

Reports about Russia continuing to deliver weapons to Armenia have
topped the agenda. As was reported, Media forum news agency has
obtained the list of 69 types of weapons, ammunition, hardware and
equipment handed over to the Armenian Defence Ministry by Russian
Gyumri-based military unit No 102.

The document on the delivery of weapons has been signed by the chief
of military base No 102 for armament, the deputy chief for armament of
the Northern Caucasus Military District, Lt-Gen Vyacheslav
Golovchenko, in 2008. The overall cost of the weapons, according to
estimations of experts, is about 800m dollars.

The spokesman for the Azerbaijani Defence Ministry, Lt-Col Eldar
Sabiroglu, has said that the report needs to be verified in
earnest. The experts assess the arming of Armenia, the occupier of the
Azerbaijani lands, by Russia – a member of the OSCE Minsk Group – as
indicative of our northern neighbour’s policy in the region.

Expert opinions vary

"Russia wants to silence Armenia by conveying a message to allay its
fears that it is lagging behind Azerbaijan – do not take a step
back. The conflict is only being kept frozen in order for Russia to
retain the region under control. Therefore, I think this case [arms
delivery] is in line with the Russian policy. Types of weapons and
amount are not significant," political expert Zardust Alizada told
Ekspress in a comment on the delivery of the Russian weapons to
Armenia.

In the expert’s view, under the current realities, the sale of Russian
weapons to Armenia is not of great significance for Azerbaijan.
Because the Azerbaijani government has no plans to go to war: "The
people are also indifferent to whether or not Karabakh is under
occupation. If only to make a living." In his opinion, Russia truly
wants stability in the Caucasus; however, this stability is
"peculiar". The stability Russia wants is that "Armenia has occupied
Azerbaijani lands. Azerbaijan is enduring this occupation stably and
does not want to undermine it. Through this conflict, Moscow keeps
both Azerbaijan and Armenia under control."

Former Azerbaijani ambassador to Russia Hikmat Hacizada says that
under the current conditions Azerbaijan has to seek partners and move
towards NATO. However, the North Atlantic alliance still does not let
the South Caucasus closer to itself. As for whether or not a military
agreement will be signed with Turkey, the political expert thinks that
this will not happen: "Turkey alone is not able to help us. This can
be done jointly with the West."

Political expert Vafa Quluzada views arming of Armenia by Russia as an
ordinary case: "It is obvious that Armenia is the outpost of
Russia. All this is obvious and outright. Russia is Armenia’s military
ally and can sell as many weapons as it wants. Azerbaijan also
purchases weapons from Russia, what can we say to Moscow?! We cannot
say anything."

In a comment on the issue to Media forum news agency, the political
expert said that our official circles have to come up with an official
opinion.

Political expert Ilham Ismayil has said that the list of weapons
delivered to Armenia shows that they are not new: "Obviously, Russia
is replacing weapons in military base No 102 with new ones and beefs
up both its positions and Armenia’s by handing old ones to its
ally. It strengthens itself in the anticipation of the possibility of
NATO stationing bases in Georgia in future and supports Armenia as its
outpost." (Media Forum)

Defence Ministry considering report

At the same time, the expert says that although the weapons are not
new, it is possible that they are in good conditions and fit for war
against Azerbaijan and the matter has to be viewed in the context of
interstate relations: "We are pondering over the issue, Defence
Ministry spokesperson Eldar Sabiroglu said in a comment."

These are indefinite thoughts, it is impossible to go far with this. I
consider that this issue should be paid a special attention in
interstate relations. Azerbaijan has to investigate the matter at the
level of the president, deliver its response to Russia and take
necessary measures. The issue should be dealt with separately in the
context of Russia taking the initiative in the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict. Taking the initiative in the mediation is not at all a
manifestation of Russia’s affection for Azerbaijan but proceeds from
its interests in the South Caucasus. At first glance, it seems that
Russia is a close friend of Azerbaijan. However, even under the USSR,
Russia always preferred Armenia to Azerbaijan. Although the regime has
changed in Russia, its interests have not.

Conflict studies expert Elxan Mehdiyev believes that the demand to
purchase weapons from Russia came from Armenia: "Moscow has always
tried to keep the balance tilted in favour of Armenia. Azerbaijani
officials have always declared that our military budget is equal to
the state budget of Armenia and the process of building the army is
speeding up by the day. Given the situation, Russia helps its
ally. For example, Azerbaijan procures weapons from Russia at world
prices but Armenia does so at domestic prices. Sometimes, weapons are
handed over to Armenia free."

In a comment for Media forum news agency, the chairman of the board of
the Musavat Party, Sulhaddin Akbar, recalled that Russia and Armenia
are military allies under the agreement signed in 1997. "Second, in
the South Caucasus, Russia only has a military base in Armenia. Both
Russia and Armenia are members of the Collective Security Treaty
Organization. Moreover, both states are members of the joint air
defence system. The sides have signed contracts on purchase of
military hardware, as well as agreements in the military and economic
spheres."

Akbar said that from this point of view, the fact of delivering
weapons to Armenia should not be surprising. On the contrary, we
should be surprised at the fact that knowing this, official Baku
inclines towards closer relations with Russia instead of changing the
balance in its favour in the region, the existing status between the
two warring states as well as tipping the balance in own favour.

"After Russia’s so-called success in Georgia, it wants to further
strengthen its positions in the South Caucasus. By beefing up
Armenia’s capacity militarily and strategically, Russia aims to
strengthen its positions in the region. Azerbaijan has to think
seriously that Russia, a military ally of the invading Armenia, cannot
be an impartial and fair mediator. At the same time Russia, which arms
Azerbaijan’s enemy and is behind it, cannot be Azerbaijan’s friend."

[translated from Azeri]