MP: Armenia faces no threat of recession

YEREVAN, January 16. /ARKA/. Armenia faces no threat of recession amid
ongoing global crisis, Ara Nranyan, MP from Armenian Revolutionary
Federation Dashnaktsutyun, said at a press conference on Friday.

He thinks the country’s authorities can ward off the recession, if
refrain from solving budget problems by means of tax administration.
The lawmaker thinks that domestic industries, especially agriculture,
are quite developed.
He also singled out transport, services and banking sector as
successfully working areas.
`If these areas keep working properly, the country can avoid
recession’.

Nranyan thinks that the global crisis has its positive and negative
aspects and gives room for redistribution of forces, i.e. if
superpowers face decline, other countries can improve things on
domestic markets.

Nranyan said that Armenia may take advantage from triple fall in world
oil prices.
He said that the global crisis has already had its positive impact on
Armenian domestic market and economic policy.

`Cost price of either imported or exported goods may go considerably
down, since shipment expenses’ share in the prime cost’, he explained.

Nranyan also said that Armenia has already got rid of its ambition to
ensure double-digit economic growth at any cost, since not only
quantity, but also quality is important. Armenia recorded 7.2% economic
growth in Jan/Nov=2
02008, compared with the same period of the previous
year.

GDP amounted to AMD 3290.9 billion (in market prices) in the mentioned
period.

Speaking about negative impacts of the crisis on Armenia’s economy,
Nranyan said that flow of money transfers to Armenia, especially from
Russia and the United States will dwindle as Armenians working overseas
will return home.
He said that the sluggish inflow of transfers will reduce aggregate
demand, and intense inflow of migrants will drive unemployment rate up.

Downward movement of aggregate demand may stall the economy and slow
down business, and skepticism will hobble proper tax inflow.

`All of these processes have already started, but it is still difficult
to predict future developments now’, Nranyan said.
According to National Statistical Service of Armenia, individuals have
received $1489.2 million from abroad over the period between January
and November 2008 for non-commercial purposes.

This amount is 26.2% or by $309.1 million greater than that of the same
period of the same period of 2007.

The most intensive net flow came from Russia and the United States in
Jan/Nov 2008, just as a year earlier.

Transfers that came from these countries made 91.6% of total inflow in
Jan/Nov 2008 against 95% of the same period a year earlier. -0-