TURKEY RISKS CREDIBILITY IN WASHINGTON-ANALYST

Hurriyet
Jan 19 2009
Turkey

ANKARA-Turkey moves far from the transatlantic consensus on how to
deal with Hamas and loses credibility as an interlocutor, according to
an American analyst. The prime minister’s vocabulary in his criticism
over Israel leads to concern , he says

The choice of vocabulary employed by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan in his criticism over Israel’s Gaza offensive, as well as the
ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP’s, relationship with
Hamas have led to serious concerns in Washington, warned a senior
American analyst.

"The risk is that Turkey moves far from the transatlantic consensus
on how to deal with Hamas and loses credibility as an interlocutor,"
Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund said in an interview with the
Hurriyet Daily News & Economic Review on Friday.

Praising Turkey’s active engagement in Middle East politics as
important, Lesser said Ankara’s relations with Syria and Iran should
not be put in the same basket with the issue of relations with
Hamas. "The relationship with Syria has been useful. Maybe even
the relationship with Iran is sort of understandable. But when it
comes to Hamas, it is more problematic… The biggest concern from
an American perspective is that Turkey loses its ability to play a
useful role between Israel and its neighbors. Geopolitically this
would have consequences," Lesser said.

Public reaction According to Lesser, American policy-makers in
Washington understand the Turkish public’s reaction toward Israel and
the AKP government’s consideration of that public opinion, however,
it is the tone that raises eyebrows in Washington. "In the long-term
this could affect Turkish public opinion negatively not only in
relations with Israel but also with the United States," he said.

The state of play between Turkey and the United States under
President Barack Obama will depend heavily on Ankara’s perception
of the transatlantic alliance, Lesser added. While pointing to
Turkey’s temporary seat at the United Nation’s Security Council as
an important asset in transatlantic cooperation, he implied that
possible developments in Iran would serve as a litmus test for
Turkey’s direction.

"There will be serious questions of what Turkey will do on major
security issues and the most important one is Iran. If there is a
Security Council action on Iran’s nuclear program then Turkey will
have to make tough choices. I am not sure it will be a problem but
Turkey and the US will have to work much closer," he said. The second
major issue for Turkey during Obama’s term will be the future of Iraq,
Lesser added. Despite the common tendency to link this with the fight
against the terrorist PKK organization, Lesser said Turkey’s interest
should be assessed in a wider, longer-term perspective in relation
to U.S. disengagement.

"Certainly on the PKK issue, I do not think Turkey will have any
problem with the Obama administration, I think there is a good
recognition of Turkey’s problems. I do not really expect any problems,"
Lesser said.

Lesser did not completely rule out the potential danger of the
1915 events turning into a crisis between Ankara and Washington
under Obama’s rule, however, he left room for optimism. He said,
"I think this issue will be critical but it will not be the first
time. We have had many experiences like this. Resolutions have
not been very successful in the past. I do not think this will be
any different. Smart, effective political people around Obama will
understand its meaning for Turkey."

Relations with Armenia He also said the relations between Turkey and
Armenia as well as the changing Turkish discourse on the issue would be
seriously considered in Washington. "These issues will all be second
considerations for Obama given the obsession with the economy. This
is valid for congress too," he added. As Obama will take over the
ship with the huge burden of the worsening economic situation, the
events of 1915 will be among the secondary considerations, he said.

While admitting that for an outsider it is extremely difficult to
understand what has actually happened in the Ergenekon saga, Lesser
reacted to efforts to link the Ergenekon plot with the US. "It is
just not true to think that somehow it is an American creation or
there is an American involvement in this. People are not even sure
what it is. I think it is part of this increasing pattern in Turkish
society in recent years that reflects that a lot of suspicion about
the United States," he said.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress