Hürriyet, Turkey
Jan 24 2009

Where is the Turkish foreign policy headed

ISTANBUL – It is no secret Turkish foreign policy makers have been
seeking international praise for the country’s recent diplomatic
efforts to take on the role of peacemaker in regional conflicts.

The Gaza crisis was no exception. Turkey took action but the crisis
was a difficult test. Turkey’s mediation efforts and its reputation as
an impartial party, both cooperating with Israel and having close ties
with Palestine, were strained by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
ErdoÄ?an’s salvo of criticism against Israel.

Besides straining long-standing relations with Tel-Aviv,
ErdoÄ?an’s comments had another outcome: a boost of popularity
within the Arab world, enacted by people who carried his picture
during protests against Israel.

The position of the ErdoÄ?an government is perceived as a
glimmer of hope in the face of an Arab League that has hit rock
bottom, Tayyar Arı, an international relations professor at
Bursa UludaÄ? University, told the Hürriyet Daily News &
Economic Review. Arı visited Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar during
the Gaza crisis and was able to measure the Arab public opinion first
hand. "The fact that millions of people have been hitting the streets
to protest against Israel has boosted sympathy toward Turkey. People
also think ErdoÄ?an achieved what their own leaders failed to do
in the face of events," he said.

Mensur Akgün from the Istanbul Culture University, who recently
met with representatives of Arab nongovernmental organizations in
Rome, also said the common view was that ErdoÄ?an had shown more
sensitivity to the issue than all the Arab leaders.

However, Akgün said the rising prestige of Turkey within the
Arab world owed more to the country itself than to ErdoÄ?an
personally. "People see this as something Turkey did, not
ErdoÄ?an. But of course it is obvious that now everybody knows
who ErdoÄ?an is," he said.

According to Professor Ã-mer Alparslan Aksu from Istanbul
University, Turkey emerging as a regional leader is "an ideal that
cannot be realized because of the ruling AKP’s (Justice and
Development Party) wrong policies." Aksu said ErdoÄ?an’s
statements retracted from Turkey’s mediation efforts in the region,
were miscalculated and stemmed from a lack of experience in diplomacy.

While Arı said ErdoÄ?an’s verbal reaction against Israel
was not extreme, Akgün said his words gave the impression as if
he confused anti-Zionism with anti-Semitism.

"The criticism was not balanced … A country wishing to play the role
of mediator has to adopt balanced speech," he said, objecting to
claims that ErdoÄ?an’s new found credibility among the Arab
masses could turn him into a regional leader. "Since we are not trying
to create a new Ottoman Empire, ErdoÄ?an can only lead his own
country," Akgün said.

There is another side to the story. Most Israeli observers, as well as
Turkish commentators, argue that Turkey lost its credibility as a
peace broker or mediator in the region after ErdoÄ?an’s
statements.

Semih Ä°diz, a columnist for the Daily News, wrote that
ErdoÄ?an’s statement harmed Turkey’s political strength in
foreign affairs. "The pro-Hamas posture he projected moved Turkey from
the moderate camp including Jordan, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to the
radical camp in the region."

"Of course ErdoÄ?an’s statements were welcomed by Arab
nations. But he is not ruling Arab nations; he should be interested in
his own country," said Dr. Alon Ben-Meir, a professor of international
relations at New York University.

Professor Asher Susser, senior fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for
Middle Eastern Studies, said Israel was deeply offended by
ErdoÄ?an’s statements.

"Until now Turkey played a very constructive intermediate role between
moderates and radicals in the region. It is not surprising that
ErdoÄ?an’s statements have endeared him to Arabs on the
street. (Iranian President) Ahmadinejad has made similar inroads with
Arab public opinion with such statements about Israel. Needless to say
that does not go well with Israelis," he said, adding that Israelis
find it very difficult to continue to regard Turkey as an honest
mediator and that it was not surprising that Israeli officials had
rejected such a role for Turkey at present.

Stressing that Israel has constantly defended Turkey’s record on
issues like the Armenians’ claims of genocide, Susser warned that
Turkish-Israeli relations might take a new direction. "This would
certainly be unfortunate for Israel. But it also might negatively
affect Turkey’s relations with Western powers if it appears closer to
the radical camp of Iran and Hamas than to the more moderate players
in the region," he said.

"The Israeli-Syria talks (brokered by Turkey) could resume soon. The
United States is changing its position toward Syria. Turkey should not
alienate Israel at such a sensitive time. (ErdoÄ?an) should
demonstrate a more balanced approach and not dwell on the war in
Gaza. Moreover, he also needs to regain Israel’s confidence if he
wants to bring Hamas to the peace table," Ben-Meir said.

Arı, on the other hand, said Turkey should be looking at the
bigger picture. "Turkey needs to make strategic decisions. What seems
a loss right now might become gains in the long-term," he said, adding
that Turkey’s policy toward Israel would not have permanent effects on
bilateral ties. "Neither Israel nor the United States could find a
better partner in the region than Turkey," he said.

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