RUSSIA’S SANCTIONS AGAINST GEORGIA: FLEXING THE KREMLIN’S GEOSTRATEGIC MUSCLES AGAINST THE USA?

Daily Georgian Times
; newsid=14854
Jan 26 2009
Georgia

While Moscow battered Georgia with a tough economic embargo in 2006,
followed by a military offensive in August 2008, it is now apparent
that its intention is to declare Georgia a "rogue state" – an attempt
to copy the American approach toward Iran. The parallels are very
evident and clear.

Following a proposal from the Federal Government Chaired by Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed on
January 19 a special decree with a very strange title: "On Measures
to Forbid the Supply of Military and Double-Purpose Products to
Georgia." The decree is based on the federal law on "Special Economic
Measures" enacted on December 30 2006, and bans until 1 December 2011
any supply of weapons of Russian, and more importantly, Soviet origin
to Georgia.

The decree contains four main articles which – as perceived by the
Kremlin – are designed to deal with pretty long-standing geopolitical
challenges posed by the USA.

Moscow threatens to restrict or cut military-technical and
military-economic cooperation not only with countries which are
members of Russian-led alliances like the CIS, Collective Security
Agreement Organization and Eurasian Economic Union and the partially
Russian-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization (including China),
but also any other country, like the USA and EU member nations if
it supplies weapons to Georgia. This demonstrates that Russia still
views Georgia from its militaristic and hegemonic positions and
seeks to transform Georgia into the Caucasus’ "Lebanon" and have an
opportunity to slam the Georgian Government whenever it likes.

Moreover Article 4 assigns all the special services of Russia, like
the FSB, GRU, Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Federal Service
for Technical and Export Control and Ministry of Internal Affairs¢
to implement all appropriate measures within their competences to
make sure the order is executed. This in fact means that all these
services are given a green light to run asymmetric intelligence
warfare and carry out acts of sabotage to subvert military equipment
and ammunition delivery to Georgia. This clearly indicates that it is
an imminent prerequisite to develop a new type of confrontation in
relations with Georgia in form of waging a secret war. It is very
serious alarm bell for the Georgian authorities and an enormous
challenge to the special services of Georgia.

However the economic embargo on technical imports is to be a part
of a compete blockade imposed on Georgia and really could damage our
national security. Russia’s serious concern over the restoration of
Georgian military capabilities is being used as a prerequisite for
establishing an imbalance in the military sphere at regional level,
something apparently confirmed by the recent reports of the delivery
of $800 million worth of armaments to Armenia from the Russian 102nd
military base in Gumri in 2008.

The decree could be considered as one of the bases for another
full-scale intervention in Georgia and for preparing some ‘solid
justification’ for this. The Russian President’s decree, in its scope,
pursues several other important goals and purposes, transcending the
pure local dimension and its tactical significance. These are:

1) To demonstrate "hard power" against the USA and counterweight US
involvement in Caucasus regional affairs with orientation on Caspian
energy resources. (It is significant that the decree has emerged a week
after the Georgia-USA Strategic Partnership Charter was signed. This
indicates quite a lot about the fierce competition which has emerged
between the USA and Russia lately. It is a geopolitical "football
game" played by both sides in their per se geostrategic backyards:
as the USA plays in Russia’s "vital national interest zone" in the
South Caucasus, Russia does in the USA’s in Latin America).

2) To retaliate against the Bush Administration sanctions imposed
on some Russian military-industrial companies, like the SUKHOI
construction company, accused of delivery military hardware to Iran
(This is why Russia has taken this action just a day before Barrack
Obama’ inauguration).

3) To flex its "military-economic" muscles against CIS member states
like Ukraine and try and reinforce its geopolitical vision of the area.

These are the real reasons why Russia seeks to restrict Georgia’s
ability to improve its defence capabilities.

Dr. Vakhtang Maisaia Military Expert, US Air Force Academy Fellow
(1998) 2009.01.26 12:49

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