SERIOUS STRUGGLE HAS BEGUN IN THE REGION FOR THE POSITION OF REGIONAL POWER
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
27.01.2009 GMT+04:00
Plans for joint infrastructure projects between Armenia and Iran may
prove a key first test of President Barack Obama’s policy intentions
toward the region amidst the global economic crisis.
To all appearances, the struggle for regional power has sharply
livened up in the region, conditionally called the Great Middle
East. Pretenders on the position are Turkey and Iran, both supported
by Russia, though after the Â"gas warÂ" Moscow’s rating of a reliable
partner has somewhat lowered. Most likely, Tehran and Ankara will
play their game without assistance, taking into consideration the
position of the new US Administration.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ By closing the military prison at Guantanamo Bay
and with the intention to establish certain relations with Iran,
Barack Obama made it clear that George Bush’s policy is going to be
radically changed. The changes, beyond any doubt, will be directed
to America’s well-being and to recovering the US image in the
world. Nevertheless, it is still too early to speak of concrete steps
by Iran and the USA against each other. However, President of Iran
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad offered congratulations to Barack Obama on his
election win. In the words of US Permanent Representative to the UN
Susan Rice, "The Obama Administration will engage in direct diplomacy
with Iran. Washington is going to conduct diplomacy of pressure and
dialogue towards Tehran." However, Iran has doubts that US President
Barack Obama’s Middle-East policy will be any different from that of
George Bush. According to Parliament Speaker of Iran Ali Larijani,
"The United States’ silence and support for Israel have created many
doubts about the policy change theory."
It is worth mentioning that Armenia-Iran relations have livened up
lately. Not only an oil pipeline but also a railroad between Iran and
Armenia are on project. The latter is of great significance to Armenia
as it would give a chance to not only have an entry to the Persian Gulf
countries, but to China as well. And in near future the China factor
may become rather essential. It can be proved by the fact that Chinese
Prime-Minister Wen Jiabao is going to attend the World Economic Forum
Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. Among the joint plans
are a railroad between Iran and Armenia, an oil pipeline from Iran’s
Tabriz refinery to a special terminal to be built in Armenia’s Ararat
province, and a hydropower station on the Araks River, which borders
the two countries. Bringing Armenian-Iranian trade relations into sync
with World Trade Organization requirements is also under consideration.
The total price of Iran-Armenia railroad is going to be shared equally
by the countries. But in view of the financial crisis it might be
difficult for Armenia to pay about 1 billion USD, therefore attracting
foreign investors may have a key role. China was invited to take part
in construction of the Iran-Armenia railroad during a December 2008
visit of an Armenian parliamentary delegation to China. Beijing is
considering the proposal, Iran Information Agency "Fars" reports.
At the same time Iran opposes the construction of any underwater
pipeline in the Caspian Sea that will carry oil from Kazakhstan
to Azerbaijan with the further aim to export it to Europe. "The
pipeline will be constructed on the seabed and could pose threats to
the ecological system of the Caspian Sea," Hossein Noqrekar-Shirazi,
Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister for International Affairs, said Saturday. He
added that Iran is against any plans that can disturb the ecological
balance of the Caspian Sea, noting that Russia also opposes the
construction of the pipeline.
In spite of the statements of Official Baku on peace and friendship,
the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan are far not sunny, and
the chief reason for it is Azerbaijan’s territorial claims to the
Province of Eastern Atrpatakan, referred to in Baku as ‘Southern
Azerbaijan’. Azerbaijan’s orientation towards the Turkic world also
plays an important role in this issue. Actually, a struggle is going
on between Baku and Tehran for energy carriers markets and here
Iran has more chances at least because she is an OPEC member unlike
Azerbaijan. It’s true that Baku is invited to the summits of this
Organization but it can sooner be interpreted as a political gesture
than a real invitation to cooperation.
However strange it may seem, Armenia has more chances of partnership
with regional leader, be it Iran or Turkey. To all appearances,
Turkey is already trying to get rid of the Â"Azerbaijani dependenceÂ";
the anti-Turkish statements in the Azeri press (though not very harsh
yet) can serve as a proof of it. At the same time according to Iranian
analysts, plans for joint infrastructure projects between Armenia and
Iran may prove a key first test of President Barack Obama’s policy
intentions toward the region amidst the global economic crisis.
Iran is richer in natural resources than Turkey and, thereby, she has
more chances of regional leadership. However, it should be noted that
the dominating role of religion in the social-political life might
impede Iran. On the other hand, it may not – everything depends on
the Presidential Elections due in June. Whether Ahmadinejad will be
re-elected and what chances other candidates have is rather difficult
to predict in such a country, with such elections.
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