ERDOGAN’S REACTION UNLIKELY TO HAVE DIRECT IMPACT ON TURKEY-ISRAEL TIES

Hurriyet
Jan 30 2009
Turkey

ANKARA – The impacts of Turkish Prime Minister’s reaction to leave
the stage during the Gaza session in Davos with Israeli president
are unlikely have immediate impact on Turkish-Israeli relations but
it is expected to have indirect effects.

Tayyip Erdogan’s reaction sent shockwaves in the Turkish foreign
ministry. But it is unlikely to reduce the level of diplomatic
relations between Turkey and Israel to the extent of recalling the
ambassador in Tel Aviv, diplomatic sources said.

The phone conversation between Erdogan and Israeli President Shimon
Peres is another sign that the mutual relations will not be affected
by the incident, sources added.

On the other hand, sources warn that the incident might have indirect
impacts on the issues that interest Turkey. Here are the major issues
that might be effected by the incident, according to diplomatic
sources:

1. The Jewish lobby in the U.S. might withdraw its years-long
efforts to prevent the U.S. President to use the word "genocide"
in his message regarding the 1915 incidents.

2. A possible attempt in the U.S. Congress to recognize the 1915
incidents as "Armenian genocide" will pass easily as the Jewish lobby
withdraws its support to Turkey’s arguments.

3. Israel could raise its voice in the argument that compares its
struggle with Hamas to Turkey’s fight against the terror organization
PKK. The Jewish lobby might withdraw its support to Turkey in its
struggle with PKK in Europe as well as the U.S.

4. This incident might have a negative impact on Turkey-Armenia
relations. The Armenian diaspora could garner the support of the
Jewish lobby.

5. This might end Turkey’s "mediation" efforts in the world especially
in the Middle East.

6. The Davos crisis might harm Turkey’s image of a "neutral country"
in the UN Security Council.