NABUCCO IS JUST ANOTHER POLITICAL-ENERGY PROJECT
by Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
29.01.2009 GMT+04:00

Azerbaijan is trying to prove the whole world and first of all the
USA that she is distancing herself from Russia since the great oil
pipeline project has no place for the Russian gas.

The "gas war" between Russia and Ukraine, that left Europe almost
gasless, urged users of the Russian gas to thoroughly consider
alternative ways of transporting energy resources to Europe. Exactly
this subject matter was the central topic for discussion at the
recent Budapest summit that hosted the "shareholders" of Nabucco –
the planned 3,300-kilometer natural gas pipeline that will transport
natural gas from Central Asia to the EU countries, primarily to
Austria and Germany.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Initially the Nabucco pipeline project introduced in
2004 supposed delivery of gas from the Iranian deposits in the Persian
Gulf. In 2006 because of the conflict over the Iranian nuclear program
there was made a decision to make changes in the project so that it
would be possible to deliver gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and
Azerbaijan. It’s an undeniable fact that in the current phase the
project is purely political. It can be easily proven by casting a look
at the list of consortium on the pipeline construction: OMV Gas GmbH
(Austria), Botas (Turkey), Bulgargaz (Bulgaria), S.N.T.G.N. Transgaz
S.A. (Romania), MOL Natural Gas Transmission Company Ltd. (Hungary),
and RWE (Germany). The consortium recently raised the cost estimate
for the project to about 7.9 billion euros. Around 31 billion cubic
meters of natural gas each year will be transported to Europe after
the Nabucco project is completed in 2013.

Azerbaijan and Turkey are intensively working on the project, bearing
in mind the Â"Contract of the CenturyÂ" – the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil
pipeline that, to all appearances, did not cover the costs. Though
it carries oil to Europe, the flow is not enough to bring dozens
of milliard dollars’ profit, which has been a favourite topic for
Azerbaijan lately. The same is happening now to gas. The gas for
Nabucco is first of all assumed to be received from Central Asia,
and only secondly from Azerbaijan. The letter is trying to prove the
whole world and first of all the USA that she is distancing herself
from Russia since the great oil pipeline project has no place for the
Russian gas. However, Azerbaijan has missed one point – the United
States has a new administration and President Barack Obama would hardly
like to listen to justifications for the European Â"chillÂ". Baku
should also have considered the fact that Barack Obama is determined
to visit Moscow in April…

The EU is not eager to make heavy investments in the project – only
250 million euros (USD330 million). Most likely, EU has decided to
wait. At the Budapest summit there was adopted rather a blurred
declaration with the following essence: "At the Budapest summit
member-states of Nabucco project reiterated their strong commitment
to the new pipeline for Europe and decided to further expand the
mutually beneficial cooperation to create the necessary political,
legal, economic and financial conditions for the successful and
prompt realization of the Nabucco pipeline project." However, what is
most important is that the issues of financing and that of defining
geographical parameters of the project are not resolved yet.

In the judgment of Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources
Hilmi Guler, Nabucco project could not be implemented without
Turkey. "It’s a pity that the member-states should show hesitation
about Nabucco pipeline construction. We could have begun the
construction in this period of time," said Guler in Budapest.

Meanwhile, Oil Research Center Director Ilham Shaban believes Nabucco
project has no concept. "It is still unclear who will sell and who
will purchase the gas discussed for about five years", said Shaban
during the Baku-Moscow-Tbilisi video-bridge on the topic: "Nabucco
gas project: pluses and minuses for Russia, Georgia and Azerbaijan."

The expert noted that the majority of member-states of the
above-mentioned project use little gas, while their striving
is explained by an intention to gain dividends as gas transiting
states. "By the way, some of the project members do not conceal their
desire to implement the South Caucasus project. It proves that this
project is after all a political one," Shaban noted.

It remains to be added that in case of warming relations between the
USA and Iran everything is possible in the Nabucco policy – the project
will almost certainly return to the initial variant, i.e. transiting
Iranian gas. And Iran will then define the route. Surely, it will be
a political project as it is energy that always dictates policy and
not vice versa.

–Boundary_(ID_bi8Yx9Q1EN/fDRX/OtDo+Q)–