ARMENIA’S APPROACHES TO TURKEY’S INITIATIVE
Lusine Vsilyan

"Radiolur"
02.02.2009 18:13

Discussions on one of the latest regional initiatives – the Caucasus
Platform – were held in Turkey recently. Representatives of Foreign
Ministries of five countries of the region – Russia, Turkey, Armenia,
Azerbaijan and Georgia – met in Istanbul. It seems, however, that the
Istanbul meeting did not bring anything new. Official information was
restricted to the report that the meeting was of working character,
technical issues were discussed and no document was adopted as a result
of the meeting. How do Armenian analysts comment on the discussions
of the Caucasus Platform?

At the peak of the Russian-Georgian conflict in August 2008 Turkey
came forth with an initiative of establishing a new interstate union
aimed at promoting stability in the region. The proposal referred
to the five countries of the region – Russia, Armenia, Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Turkey. The initiative was called Caucasus Stability
and Cooperation Platform.

Following the proposal all the countries spoke in favor of regional
cooperation and actually supported the initiative. The Armenian
Foreign Minister also declared the initiative was acceptable.

After the recent meeting in Istanbul experts say Ankara’s proposal
will not go beyond discussions. One of the periodicals rushed to
describe it as a "bridge that20does not lead anywhere."

Political scientist Sergey Shakaryants considers that Turkey’s
initiative of establishing a stability and cooperation platform in
the region is destined to fail, first of all because great strategic
changes have taken place in the region. The recent high-level contacts
between Russia and Europe showed that Russia is not going to refuse
from its decisions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. "It means that
five out of the six countries in the region are recognized, while
the Turkish initiative recognizes only three of them, also Russia
and Turkey," Shakaryants says.

According to the political scientist, the second factor that makes
the success of the Platform uncertain is the exclusion of Iran,
which contradicts the reality. "Because of these two reasons Turkey’s
initiative is unreal and has no strategic prerequisites. Even if
the Foreign Ministers of the five countries hold several meetings
and sign some documents, it’s hard to imagine that it will lead to
accomplishment of any programs within the framework of the Caucasus
Platform."

To ground his initiative Turkish President Abdullah noted the Stability
and Cooperation Platform would contribute to the resolution of frozen
conflicts in the region, including the Karabakh issue. "Only the
Nagorno Karabakh conflict remains unsettled in the region. However,
Turkey’s interference in its settlement is neither expected, not
welcomed," the political scientist notes.

"Turkey has never been considered an international mediator in the
Karabakh conflict resolution. That is why the Caucasus Platform
will not advance the settlement of the conflict. It was Russia that
categorically spoke against Turkey’s involvement. Turkey has long been
isolated from the negotiation process. The Caucasus Platform will not
provide new opportunities, since the issue has been solved on much
higher level," Sergey Shakaryants stated. The political scientist adds
that the format of the Caucasus Platform cannot promote rapprochement.

According to Sergey Shakaryants, the Armenian-Turkish contacts can
yield results only in case Turkey refuses from its preconditions,
from its approach of unilaterally supporting Azerbaijan’s unilateral
approach. He considers, however, that Turkey is not going to refuse
from the position.

Political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan’s assessment of the
initiative is more optimistic. He first emphasizes that he does not
comprehend the initiative as a real purpose. "The Caucasus Platform
is a tool of cooperation, which did not exist in the past. It
envisages a framework of cooperation, where Turkey, Russia and the
three South Caucasian countries should try to work out mechanisms
of cooperation. Whatever topic was put on the basis of the platform,
it would be interesting because it would be discussed by the five coun
tries of the region. From this point of view the initiative functions,
since it is discussed.

To what extent does Alexander Iskandaryan agree with the assessment
that the initiative will not go beyond discussions? "Something has
already happened: Turkey started to play, it got deper involved in the
discussions on what is going to take place in the South Caucasus. One
could consider this as simple discussions, but I do believe it’s not
very unserious."

Even the meetings of technical nature are already a result only because
they exist. This is a process, which we cannot assess as a success or
failure with the results of the technical meetings. In this case, the
simple meeting is already a result, but launching broader cooperation
would be a greater achievement."