FORMATION OF QRCF CAN HARDLY BE DIRECTED AGAINST NATO
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
05.02.2009 GMT+04:00
For all the CSTO members, including Armenia, the quick response
collective forces (QRCF) suggest consolidation of security and
reduction in the rate of threats issued by unfriendly countries.
The decision on forming quick response collective forces (QRCF)
under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was long
expected. Still back in 2008 when the GUAM countries voiced their
intention to establish a peacekeeping military unit, representatives of
the RF Joint Staff declared that similar units might be established in
the framework of CSTO too. And on February 4 they completed the plan.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Directly speaking, the absence of such bodies
in CSTO was rather strange as any military-political alliance must
possess response mechanisms. Hardly will QRCF be directed against NATO,
more likely this unit will indeed protect, if we may put it so, the
states within the organization. And, as it can be seen, it is going
to be mutually beneficial. Russia gains an additional point against
the West and may become a guarantor of security in the eyes of all
the post-Soviet states, as it was demonstrated in August 2008. Some
of the CIS states will have to give up the temptation of settling
their territorial and other pretensions in a military way. It firstly
refers to Azerbaijan and Georgia. But even if everything is more
or less clear with Georgia, there are still hundreds of unanswered
questions with Baku. President Aliyev’s administration has already
managed to declare that QRCF poses no threat to Azerbaijan. Well,
it is in fact so, but only until Baku suddenly decides to declare
war on Nagorno Karabakh. Then, if not the Central Asian countries,
at least Russia and Belarus will definitely send their military
divisions to Armenia for assistance, because declaration of war to
NKR indicates a direct war against Armenia.
Once formed, QRCF may change the geopolitical distribution of forces
not only in Central Asia but in the Caucasus as well. It is not
accidental that Kyrgyzstan made a decision on closing the USAF base
"Manas" especially now. Hardly would she go as far as that without
having the support of Russia.
If we look at the possible closing of the air base from the
outlook of Russia, the benefit for Moscow is apparent: she gains
an excellent club against NATO and the USA in Afghan matters. No
one can guarantee that after the closure of the air base "Manas",
Russia will not propose another aerodrome to the NATO forces for
transferring loads and military contingent to Afghanistan. Actually,
in that way Moscow can return part of the money given to Kyrgyzstan
"as a gift". But besides money Russia also obtains a political lever
not only against Kyrgyzstan, but against the entire Central Asia. If
we also take into account the formation of quick response collective
forces of CSTO, it becomes clear that presently the USA suffers
a strategic defeat. Even the moment was selected by Moscow rather
carefully: the new Administration has completely gone into crisis
elimination and has no time for Kyrgyzstan. It is natural that the
opposition should speak of the "treachery of national interest", but,
after all, opposing is the job of opposition. Certainly, the USA will
attempt to exert pressure on Kyrgyzstan, but it is not an easy job
to fight against 2 billion people, especially when there is neither
Dick Cheney nor Condoleezza Rice, who except for combating terrorism
(in their understanding) could do nothing else.
For the CSTO member states, no matter how they treat RF, it is yet an
obvious excess to hold a US base in their territory… And however
sad it may sound to Bakiyev the fate of "Manas" will be solved by
Medvedev and Obama. The same is also true about the whole post-Soviet
territory. The CSTO members have not recognized the independence of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia, but it is too difficult to contradict
Moscow in every matter. Who knows, President Bakiyev might still
have to do even worse things than the closure of the USAF base in
Kyrgyzstan? Besides, the USA is rather far, while Russia is within
spitting distance. Kyrgyzstan has neither oil nor gas, thus it
may cause no serious quarrels. Everything is done on the level of
declarative statements, which, by the way, may cease at any moment.
As to the QRCF, for all the CSTO members, including Armenia, they
mean consolidation of security and reduction in the rate of threats
issued by unfriendly countries. The only thing this new unit should
avoid is taking part in the peacemaking operations of NATO. CSTO and
NATO have quite different goals and, accordingly, fairly different
methods of achieving them.