SOCIAL OUTBREAK POSSIBLE

A1+
[07:07 pm] 05 February, 2009

For some unknown reason, the Euro exchange rate goes down, while the
dollar remains the same during this global economic meltdown.

"It is senseless to find logic when discussing any process taking place
in Armenia because only subjective factors are at work. Somebody makes
the decision," told "A1+" economist, former head of the Central Bank
Bagrat Asatryan. According to him, the fixed dollar rate is kept at
305 drams, while the Euro goes along with the processes taking place
in the global market.

Why did they decide to keep the dollar rate stable? In response,
Bagrat Asatryan said:

"They’re not thinking ahead. The Armenian economy has traditionally
used the foreign exchange rate, although a large part of our foreign
trade is in Euros."

The National Assembly and the government don’t plan to revise the
budget. Why aren’t they doing what other countries find necessary?

"First of all, they are certain that they will implement all programs
and secondly, they don’t care about the budget thinking that it is
not going to have an effect," said Bagrat Asatryan. Former head of
the Central Bank thinks that a social outbreak is possible in an
unfavorable political situation like the one in Armenia.

The country was faced with a social-economic crisis in the 90s too, but
back then people overcame that crisis because, according to experts,
they had expectations, there was confidence, but that turned into
distrust in the government.

"Now we see apathy and anger conditioned by the political
situation. Before, people found the solution by moving to a foreign
country. Now, Armenia is turning into a closed sector where the steam
is rising and a way out of the situation is change of power through
normal elections. Our authorities did not consider that a way out
of the situation and told people that they had to cope with their
government, plus the murders of last year. The denial of the existence
of one sector, keeping hundreds of people locked up in jail-these
are the factors that prepare grounds for extreme manifestations,"
told "A1+" Bagrat Asatryan.