VIGEN HAKOBYAN: CRISIS IS IN SHORE OF RUSSIA: DEATH OF MULTI-VECTOR POLICY AND VACUUM OF POWER
Regnum
Feb 6 2009
Russia
Global economic crisis, which began with the crash of American model
of "capitalization air bubble ", make corrections in the global
political landscape. Brownian movement is observed in the zone of
Russia’s direct influence. While new US power tries to erect again
the global architecture, the post-soviet republics already lost any
possibility of balance in foreign policy and foreign economy.
The temporal withdraw of the USA from the post-soviet area, like
an outflow, allowed to look over the deep problems of neighboring
with Russia countries, including Baltic States. Majority from them
showed a total absence of (sovereign) immunity and a little bit well
coordinated mechanisms of crisis resistance.
It is possible to certify that only Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
Azerbaijan and Belarus, among all posts-soviet republics had gained
chances on relative stability since their independence. If the
first three countries can bless nature which provided them with
hydrocarbon resources, then Belarus had very sufficiently used its
soviet industrial potential, and also the location as a transit
country. Only Ukraine could compete with Belarus in these fields,
but irresponsibility of the Ukrainian leadership destroyed the
country’s future.
Due to a crisis, Russia can strengthen its influence in near
abroad. Instinct of state self-protection compel the post-soviet
republics to leave ambitions, fed by the American granting injections
into export-import elites, and return to the primary source of wealth
and security, to (strong) Russia. Fast of all it was done by Belarus,
Armenia and Kyrgyzstan, which hardly managed to overdo in the popular
"multi-vector policy quiz".
Georgia and Ukraine are in the most difficult situation. They entered
a crisis without political and economic sovereignty. Georgia, in
addition, faced a power shock and territorial division. Today, the
future of these two countries depends on the rehabilitation speed of
policy planning center, in other words the USA. Taking into account
the deepness of crisis into American economy itself, Kiev and Tbilisi
could hardly wait for the magic.
Meantime, Europe, facing lack of distinct signals from Washington
concerning long-term strategy of relations development with the
post-soviet states, would act with caution to Moscow and concentrate
on own security issues, in other words to distance itself from the
third countries’ problems.
As for energy, the deficit of political investments, the industry and
prices on hydrocarbons slack period will relegate to the background
such expensive and risky projects as NABUCCO. The direct and more
clear project of gas transit to Europe form Iran via Turkey could
appear, instead of difficult and combined gas pipelines system through
concerned "multi-vector" post-soviet republics. Recent action taken by
the Turkish authorities testify the intention to move closer to Iran,
till the USA is facing a deep knock-down (and there is a risk of two
mores in Iraq and Afghanistan).
Kyrgyzstan declared intention concerning the termination the term
of US airbase Manas in consideration of credit tranche from Russia
is a clear example of republic’s foreign policy co-ordinates system
upset. It seems that deal-making process with Americans round the
fate of Manas airbase did not take place, but it does not mean that
the deal would not start at any appropriate for Washington moment
and on conditions, offered by the United States.
A demarche of Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon, cancelling his
visit to Moscow is fixing the start of new game between Russia
and Iran. Tajikistan had made this choice due to awareness of his
competition position weakness in comparison with Uzbekistan.
The foreign policy of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, like oil and gas,
is flowing in the same direction, where is situated functioning
pipe. Retargeting these countries requires huge expenses, comparable
with the total political and economic cost of pipe lying on the Caspian
seafloor. At the moment these expenses are intolerable for the Western
countries. Harsh activation of China is also impossible here, because
China prefers to take an occasion and develop its strategic advantage
on higher circle — directly inside American economy.
An economic crisis will lead to growth of radicalism in the Azerbaijan
policy. Public disappointment concerning the pledged, but frustrated
economic wonder could be reoriented into patriotic track, that fraught
the resumption of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It should be noted, that
the beginning of 1990th was the active phase of military operations
in this region, in other words it was a time of socio-economic
catastrophe. Today, the foreign policy of Azerbaijan would be aimed
at creation and withholding of balance between Russia and Turkey
by overwhelming economic advantage of the Turkish side. Supporting
activity towards Russian direction has just one goal – to maximally
neutralize Russian influence in Armenia. Herewith, Baku will increase
its economic predomination in Georgia. Moreover, Baku and Ankara will
work simultaneously concerning Georgia.
Moldavia also is verging towards serious shocks. The crisis reached
this country at the pre-election stage. President Voronin shows
activity towards Russia, because he does not see the perspectives of
sovereign coexistence with Romania. Victory of nationalists in Moldavia
will lead to smooth absorption of the country by the Romanian "big
brother". The communist regime regeneration gives chances to maintain
the status quo in Transdnestr conflict and preventive degradation of
Moldavia as a state. It is possible to "deceive" those in Russia,
who wants to be mistaken about Voronin’s negotiability. But, it is
impossible to deceive a crisis.
This scenario around Russia will develop according described
logic only in case if Russia would hold control over its domestic
situation, not complicating a global crisis by showing its weakness or
inefficiency. The crisis "outflow" is unavoidable fact, but Russia’s
returning is only a possibility. By the global decrease of Russian
weight, the political scales in post-soviet area will turn in the
benefit of Russia.
They in Washington could not fail to worry concerning the scenario
of complete evacuation of the USA from Eurasia. This scenario does
not seem to be utopia, taking into account the withdraw of Americans
from Iraq, which entails Turkish-Iranian rapprochement against Israel,
increasing problems in Pakistan, decentralization of US influence in
Europe and CIS countries, economic dictate of China.
In case of rapid rehabilitation of the American economy and renewal
of the traditional regime of ambitious foreign policy, the return of
the USA to Eurasia could be very quick and powerful. In this case
traditionally slow "concentrating" Russia would be tipped from the
new high. Taking into account this fact, now Moscow hardly should fill
in vacuum from Middle Asia to Baltic states in a hurry, uncomplaining
subsidize numerous bankrupts by spending its own immunity here.