Milliyet, Turkey
Feb 5 2009
Hostility to Israel and United States or a Disaster Scenario
Hasan Cemal
Does the Turkish public harbour antagonism to Israel today? Yes, it
does.
Does this situation also provoke a wave of anti-Semitism? Yes, it
does.
Another question: Would you want extreme anti-American sentiments to
be compounded to the rising tide of hostility towards Israel?
The leaders of Israel and the "Jewish lobby" in Washington need to
think about the answer to this question.
Compounding hostility to Israel with anti-American sentiments – how
can this happen? It is very simple. The passage of any resolution
recognizing the Armenian genocide in the US Congress would immediately
lead to an explosion of anti-Americanism in this country and result in
a shattering of pots and pans in every sense.
Indeed, if you want to provoke an even bigger wave of hostility, you
could comply with the demands of the Armenian diaspora and make sure
that Congress approves such a resolution before the 29 March [local]
elections in Turkey. Such a step would deal an even more mortal blow
to Turkish-US relations.
Is the Jewish lobby in favour of this? Does Israel want it? What about
the Obama administration?
How well has the brain trust of the new US President contemplated the
dangers of such a move?
Here is a possible scenario:
Stage one: The Armenian genocide bill is brought before Congress. The
Jewish lobby helps the Armenian lobby or remains neutral. President
Obama keeps his campaign pledge and Congress approves the bill.
Stage two: Hostility to Israel and the United States surges in Turkey
on the top of a massive nationalist tide. Turkey’s relations with both
countries are dealt a heavy blow. Nationalist, neonationalist, and
radical Islamist movements in Turkey gain strength.
Stage three: The normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia
are sadly postponed to another time. Fanatics and extremists on both
sides gain.
Stage four: Turkey turns into an impeding rather than a facilitating
player in the game plans of the new US administration with regard to
the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Russia, Afghanistan, and energy
security.
Stage five: No one should doubt that the EU will also take its share
of any explosion of hostility to Israel and the United States as a
result of the passage of an Armenian resolution in the US
Congress. Groups – in and outside Turkey – that do not want to see
Turkey join the EU would benefit greatly from this.
Stage six: The rising anti-Western tide in Turkey narrows Prime
Minister Erdogan’s manoeuvring room on Cyprus substantially. The
resulting failure to resolve the impasse in Cyprus by the end of 2009
harms Turkish-EU relations on the top Turkish-US relations.
Stage seven: Neonationalists, extreme nationalists, and radical
Islamists are obviously most pleased with a Turkey whose ties with
both the United States and Europe are rapidly deteriorating and that
is sliding into political instability on the top of economic
instability caused by the global financial crisis. Groups that want to
pull Turkey into Eurasia, the Islamic world, or, for example, the
Iran-Hamas-Syria axis are especially delighted.
Stage eight: As these stages unfold simultaneously, the military is
once again enticed to intervene – as was done in 2003 and 2004. Fresh
coup plans similar to the "Flaxen Girl," "Moonlight," and "Glove" are
activated to make Prime Minister Erdogan to pay the price.
There is no need to make the scenario longer. This is a vicious cycle
– an unpleasant and dangerous vicious cycle that may be set in motion
by an Armenian genocide resolution in the US Congress.
More correctly, it is a disaster scenario.
Let us note right away that Israel, Turkey, the United States, the EU
as well as regional peace and stability would be harmed by such a
vicious cycle.
Are we obligated to confine ourselves to such a cycle?
Read my fourth article in this series tomorrow.
[translated from Turkish]