AZERI MILITARY STRONGER THAN ARMENIAN, BRITISH THINK-TANK`S REPORT SHOWS

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04-02-2009 04:45:12

An assessment of the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia – the two
South Caucasus republics locked in long-standing conflict – has been
drawn up by a London-based think-tank in its annual report evaluating
military potential of 170 countries worldwide.The Military Balance 2009
report released by the International Institute for Strategic Studies
says Azerbaijan has an army of about 67,000 men, while Armenia`s army
has only 42,000, or about 35 per cent less.

According to the report, Azerbaijan also surpasses Armenia for the
number of reserve forces available for mobilization, with 300,000
against 200,000 in the neighboring country. Most of the weaponry used
by the two militaries is Russian-made.

Moreover, Azerbaijan commands three times more tanks and armored
vehicles than Armenia, possessing 320 and 470 items respectively. As
for BMP combat vehicles, the difference is rather insignificant with
127 against 104.

The report also noted that Azerbaijan has 47 warplanes, a three-fold
supremacy over Armenia. Both countries have mostly MIG-25, SU-24 and
SU-25 fighter jets.

Besides, Azerbaijan has six up-to-date drones of the Aerostar and
Orbiter models. Armenia has no such aircraft, at all.

With regard to rocket launchers, the report estimated that Grad
facilities account for most of both countries` arsenal, but Azerbaijan
also has 12 more up-to-date Smerch launchers, which were granted to
the disposal of the Soviet troops in 1989.

Regarding anti-tank weapons, Azerbaijan has about a ten-fold supremacy
over Armenia.

The two countries fought a lengthy war that ended with the signing
of a cease-fire in 1994, but Armenia continues to occupy Upper
(Nagorno) Garabagh and seven other Azerbaijani districts in defiance
of international law.

Peace talks have not yet resulted in resolving the conflict.

Azerbaijani military expert Arif Yunus says Azerbaijan`s military
power is indeed greater than that of Armenia. He pointed out, however,
that Azerbaijan`s land is under occupation, and if the Azerbaijani
army moves to free Upper Garabagh and adjacent districts, it could
face tremendous losses.

According to Yunus, this projection is not only because of military
theories, as the attacker should have at least three times more power
than the defending side, but also because the relief of Garabagh has
peculiarities that could favor Armenian forces.

"Since Garabagh is a mountainous area, at times it is possible to block
a tank`s movement by means of just several mines. Operating warplanes
in the mountains is also complicated. Possibly, there wouldn`t be major
problems for the Azerbaijani troops in the Aghdam and Fuzuli districts,
but the task could prove daunting in mountainous areas. Therefore,
it`s not the quantity but the quality of the Azerbaijani troops that
should be the main factor here and, in that sense, the capacities of
the two countries are about the same," the expert maintained.

Yunus also stressed that the British think-tank had not taken into
account the military forces controlled by the self-proclaimed regime
operating in Upper Garabagh.

Further, he recalled the recent transfer of Russian arms and military
equipment, worth $800 million to Armenia, that has drawn fire from
Azerbaijan and sparked controversy. He alleged that if military action
breaks out with Azerbaijan, it is not ruled out that Russian forced
based in Armenia might provide assistance to the Armenian military.

It is considered important that the International Institute for
Strategic Studies indicated that there are 3,000 Russian forces in
Armenia, along with 74 tanks, 18 modern MiG-29 warplanes and, finally,
S-300 rockets.

Azerbaijan keeps secret the quantity of its arms, but the
commander-in-chief, President Ilham Aliyev, has repeatedly said the
country`s military stands ready to liberate the occupied territories
any time.