ALLIANCE OF DICTATORSHIPS: MOSCOW IS TRYING TO FRIGHTEN THE WEST WITH A MILITARY ALLIANCE WHERE MEMBERSHIP IS SELF-IMPOSED AND COMPULSORY ALL AT ONCE
by Pavel Felgengauer
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
February 11, 2009 Wednesday
Russia
MOSCOW SEEMS CONFIDENT THAT THE UNITED STATES CANNOT SUCCEED IN
AFGHANISTAN WITHOUT MANAS AND RUSSIAN SUPPORT; Russia is trying to
tighten its grip on the post-Soviet zone.
Granted that the Americans were admonished for their invasion into
Iraq and Afghanistan, practically all their allies did send their
contingents to at least one of these two countries. When the Russian
army entered Georgia and seized part of its territory in August, not
one of its allies in the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization
sent contingents to help Russia in the hostilities or recognized
Abkhazia and South Ossetia afterwards. Military-diplomatic circles in
Moscow maintain that it is this embarrassing situation that compelled
the Kremlin to force military integration within the CIS Collective
Security Treaty Organization and try to evolve this amorphous structure
into a military alliance with its own armed forces.
Transformation of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization
into an adequate military bloc with a permanent armed forces under the
Russian command is a serious step toward development of the "region of
privileged interests" into an actual sphere of influence. As things
stand, however, other members of the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization do not really think that they need it.
The CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization is
essentially an alliance of dictatorships with varying degrees of
authoritarianism. Presidents of the countries comprising it desperately
need elite battalions as guarantees of their own power, always on
alert and handy. That every president will be happy to accept aid
from Russia goes without saying, but that is all. This is the only
value that all dictators share: every man for himself.
Alexander Lukashenko verified documents of the CIS Collective Security
Treaty Organization session in return for Russian credits, but his
signature accounts for nothing at all. The Belarussian Constitution
expressly forbids the deployment of the military abroad, and the
thought of amending it has never even crossed Minsk’s mind.
Sandwiched between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia, Armenia couldn’t
send its troops anywhere even if it were of the mind to do so.
Central Asian regimes are prepared to fight Islamic radicals in their
own region with Russia’s help, but not one of them will ever send a
single soldier to the Caucasus or elsewhere. Uzbekistan did sign the
documents and, unlike others, plainly stated that it was not going
to participate in the collective forces on the permanent basis.
Promised an economic aid package worth $2 billion, President of
Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev, said before the forum in Moscow that
the American AF base in Manas would be closed. Consolidation of
the post-Soviet zone and its transformation into a zone of Russian
influence is impossible without neutralization of Washington’s
destructive clout, of course. President Barack Obama meanwhile
proclaimed the war on Islamists in Afghanistan number one priority of
his foreign policy and promised to double numerical strength of the
US Army contingent in this country before the year was out. It will
take additional supplies and the support of troops in Afghanistan,
but Talib gunmen regularly attack NATO convoys driving northward
across Pakistan from Karachi.
Manas US AF Base "processes" 15,000 soldiers and 500,000 tons of cargo
every month. American flying tankers operating out of Manas refuel
aviation of the Alliance flying combat missions in Afghanistan. Russia
offers its own territory for non-military transit to Afghanistan,
but not even this transit will recompense for the loss of the AF base
in Kyrgyzstan.
Moscow seems arrogantly confident that Obama cannot succeed in
Afghanistan without Manas and Russian support and that the West
will be forced to cry uncle: leave the regimes in Kiev and Tbilisi
without its support and abandon the missile shield plans for East
Europe. Russia suggested a new European security framework, one that
would take into account Moscow’s legitimate interests and spheres of
control and influence. If Washington disagreed this time, the odds
are it would never agree.