ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN REPORTEDLY APPROVE TURKEY-MEDIATED PEACE PLAN, CONFIRMATION PENDING
Natalia Leshchenko

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
February 11, 2009

Turkish newspaperHurriyetpublished an article announcing a partial deal
on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution. The plan was allegedly
offered by the Turkish Foreign Minister on the sidelines of the
Munich security conference last weekend, and discussed with foreign
ministers of both states. The four-point plan as laid out by the
newspaper suggests that Armenia will return to Azerbaijan some towns
around the disputed region and repatriate Azeris who fled from them;
Nagorno-Karabakh will receive an autonomous ruling body, which will
then return the town of Kelbajar; a railroad and auto highway will
be opened between the countries, with an international peace force
patrolling the border region between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

Significance:Since the news broke, the Armenian Foreign Ministry has
denied making a deal with Azerbaijan with Turkey’s mediation, saying it
is committed to peace regulation within the Organisation for Security
and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)-sponsored Minsk Group. It is hard for
Armenians to subscribe to any plan that involves surrendering towns and
territories to Azerbaijan, so the public denial is not a surprise. This
does not, however, preclude an agreement, since Armenia, Azerbaijan
and Turkey have intensified diplomatic efforts to an unprecedented
level since late 2008, including the landmark meeting of the Armenian
and Turkish presidents during the World Economic Forum in Davos this
month. Talks are certainly going on, and may well prove successful,
since the peace effort is being encouraged both by Turkey and Russia,
which is seeking to outweigh U.S. influence in the region by proposing
a joint security plan. We are likely to have more to discuss on the
peace settlement front in coming months.