FUTURE TURKEY-ARMENIA RELATIONS WILL DEPEND ON RUSSIA’S FOREIGN POLICY LINE
Trend News Agency
Feb 12 2009
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan, Baku, Feb. 12/ Trend News, B. Hasanov, E. Ostapenko/ If
Russia makes changes in the neighborhood policy it pursued so far,
it can contribute to normalizing Ankara-Yerevan talks.
"If Russia chooses policy to compete will regional powers and exercise
control over the Caucasus region with help of military bases, it means
that Russia does not want Turkey-Armenia ties to normalize. However, if
Russia pursues cooperation policy in the region, it means Russia backs
normalizing Ankara-Yerevan ties," Turkish expert Kamer Kasim said.
The Turkish President Abdullah Gul will pay an official visit to
Russia on Feb. 12-15, Turkey’s Cihan news agency reported. Turkey
and Russia are expected to hold discussions on the Caucasus region
during the visit.
Turkey proposed to establish Caucasus Stability and Cooperation
Platform to ensure stability and cooperation in the Caucasus on
the backdrop of the Georgia-Russia conflict in Aug. 2008. Turkey
proposes the platform to cover Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Russia
and Turkey. Ankara seeks to promote dialogue among regional states
in an effort to solve problems between these countries. Ankara also
seeks to normalize Turkey-Armenia relations. Armenian-Turkish ties
have been severed since 1993 because of Armenia’s false "genocide"
claims and occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani lands. Turkish President
Abdullah Gul visited Yerevan on Sept. 6, 2008 at the invitation of
his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sarkisyan to watch Armenia-Turkey
football match of the European Cup. Efforts have been made since then
to normalize ties between the two countries.
Turkish expert Kamer Kasim says without Russia’s pressure, Yerevan
will not accept Turkey’s conditions to halt genocide campaign across
the world, to recognize Turkey’s territorial integrity and take
steps to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Russia’s attitude
to normalization of Turkey-Armenia ties will be determined by the
foreign policy line it will choose.
"Following Georgia-Russia conflict, it is more appropriate for Russia’s
foreign policy to cooperate with Turkey. From this viewpoint, the
Caucasus Platform meets Moscow’s interests," research fellow at the
International Strategic Studies Center Kamer Kasim told Trend News
in a telephone conversation from Ankara.
Expert said the energy cooperation with Ankara is important for
Moscow. He said Russia does not want Nabucco gas pipeline project
to be implemented so that to keep monopoly on the European gas
market. Therefore, it seeks persuade Ankara to build a second gas
pipeline bypassing Ukraine.
"Russia can support Turkey in terms of issues regarding the Caucasus
in a bid to persuade Ankara to implement the Blue Stream-2 project,"
Kasim added.
He said if Armenia takes concrete measures in terms of "genocide"
and Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it will mean that Moscow puts pressure
on Yerevan to normalize ties with Turkey. "Moscow’s position on this
issue will be clear after Abdullah Gul’s visit to Russia," Kasim noted.
Russian expert Kyril Tanayev says energy issues will be one of
the matters of debate during Gul’s visit to Moscow. Moscow puts
special emphasis on ties with Ankara and will back the Caucasus
platform. Normalization of the Ankara-Yerevan ties meets Moscow’s
interests, he said. "Moscow is doing its utmost to normalize
Ankara-Yerevan ties," director general of the Useful Policy Fund
Tanayev said to Trend News via email from Moscow.
American expert Michael Emerson says Moscow’s attitude to normalization
of the Turkey-Armenia ties is determined is by its interests.
"If negative nationalism and out-of-date foreign policy line is
pursued, Moscow will not have positive attitude to normalization of
the Turkey-Armenia ties. Of course, political line based on good
neighbor ties will support Ankara-Yerevan ties," senior expert at
the Centre for European Policy Studies Emerson said to Trend News
via telephone from Brussels.
He said there are some forces in Moscow who seek to retain means
of influence in the region by continuing Russia’s patronage over
Armenia. "These forces do not want Turkey-Armenia ties to normalize,"
Tanayev said.
Ankara and Yerevan have held meetings on the level of foreign ministers
for several times. Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan met with the
Armenian Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandyan and Armenian President
Serzh Sarkisyan in Munich. Babacan and Sarkisyan made positive
statements after the talks.