GRAND THORNTON SURVEY: ARMENIA OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE OUTLOOK FOR ITS ECONOMY

armradio.am
12.02.2009 17:35

Optimism amongst privately held businesses (PHBs) around the world has
slumped by 56% in the last 12 months and pushed the Grant Thornton
International optimism/pessimism barometer to a record negative
balance of -16% compared to +40% this time last year. It is the first
time pessimists have outweighed optimists about the outlook for their
economy since the research began in 2003 but this year’s International
Business Report, which surveyed senior executives from over 7,000
PHBs across 36 economies, also shows an overwhelming consensus that
falling consumer demand is the biggest threat to PHB businesses. There
are also some startling differences in attitude towards the economic
crisis between the mature and emerging economies.

Of the four largest trading nations, PHBs in the United States and
mainland China, who together contribute over 32% of global GDP1,
scored their optimism at -34% in the United States but +30% in mainland
China. Similarly, Japan and India (collectively contributing over 11%
of global GDP) scored their optimism at -85% and +83% respectively.

"These polarised results suggest there are still pockets of hope in
the global marketplace and it is no coincidence that PHBs are some
of the first to realise," explained Alex MacBeath, global leader
of privately held business services, "Their macro view of the world
economic stage explains the overall slump in optimism but while PHBs
are preparing for a prolonged and painful downturn, those in the
emerging economies realise that at their own micro level it could
offer real opportunities."

Despite the pessimism, the survey found PHBs from 11 countries remained
optimistic about the outlook for their economies, with India (+83%),
Botswana (+81%) and Brazil (+50%) heading the list, with Armenia
having the score of +46. Japan (-85%) and Spain (-65%) were the
most pessimistic. The biggest swing in sentiment was in Hong Kong,
which went from +81% optimistic last year to -49%, a factor of its
exposure not only as one of the hard hit financial services centres
but also of its close trading links with both the East and the West.

When asked to identify the single factor causing most concern for their
business, PHBs in 33 out of the 36 economies cited a fall in consumer
demand with a shortage of business credit a secondary concern. Alex
MacBeath added, "The economies in our survey contribute 81% of global
GDP. If politicians were in any doubt about the need to take steps
to boost consumer spending and kick start the global economy this
overwhelming consensus from PHBs should surely persuade them."

The Grant Thornton International Business Report is an annual survey
of the views of senior executives in privately held businesses all
over the world.

Launched in 1992 in nine European countries the report now surveys
over 7,200 PHBs in 36 economies providing territory, regional and
global trend data on the economic and commercial issues affecting a
sector often described as the ‘engine’ of the world’s economy. Data
for eight key industry sectors will be available for the first time
in 2009. The research is conducted by Experian Business Strategies
Ltd. Grant Thornton International donates US$5 to UNICEF for every
completed IBR questionnaire, a donation of over US$39,000 in 2008.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress