GRANT THORNTON SURVEY: ARMENIANS REMAINED OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PRIVATELY HELD BUSINESSES

Panorama.am
16:07 12/02/2009

Optimism amongst privately held businesses (PHBs) around the world has
slumped by 56% in the last 12 months and pushed the Grant Thornton
International optimism/pessimism barometer to a record negative
balance of -16% compared to +40% this time last year.

It is the first time pessimists have outweighed optimists about the
outlook for their economy since the research began in 2003 but this
year’s International Business Report, which surveyed senior executives
from over 7,000 PHBs across 36 economies, also shows an overwhelming
consensus that falling consumer demand is the biggest threat to PHB
businesses. There are also some startling differences in attitude
towards the economic crisis between the mature and emerging economies.

Of the four largest trading nations, PHBs in the United States and
mainland China, who together contribute over 32% of global GDP1,
scored their optimism at -34% in the United States but +30% in mainland
China. Similarly, Japan and India (collectively contributing over 11%
of global GDP) scored their optimism at -85% and +83% respectively.

"These polarized results suggest there are still pockets of hope in
the global marketplace and it is no coincidence that PHBs are some
of the first to realize," explained Alex MacBeath, global leader
of privately held business services, "Their macro view of the world
economic stage explains the overall slump in optimism but while PHBs
are preparing for a prolonged and painful downturn, those in the
emerging economies realize that at their own micro level it could
offer real opportunities."

Despite the pessimism, the survey found PHBs from 11 countries remained
optimistic about the outlook for their economies, with India (+83%),
Botswana (+81%) and Brazil (+50%) heading the list and with Armenia
(+46%).

Japan (-85%) and Spain (-65%) were the most pessimistic. The biggest
swing in sentiment was in Hong Kong, which went from +81% optimistic
last year to -49%, a factor of its exposure not only as one of the
hard hit financial services centers but also of its close trading
links with both the East and the West.